Recent studies have revealed a number of pathologies of neural machine translation (NMT) systems. Hypotheses explaining these mostly suggest there is something fundamentally wrong with NMT as a model or its training algorithm, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Most of this evidence was gathered using maximum a posteriori (MAP) decoding, a decision rule aimed at identifying the highest-scoring translation, i.e. the mode. We argue that the evidence corroborates the inadequacy of MAP decoding more than casts doubt on the model and its training algorithm. In this work, we show that translation distributions do reproduce various statistics of the data well, but that beam search strays from such statistics. We show that some of the known pathologies and biases of NMT are due to MAP decoding and not to NMT’s statistical assumptions nor MLE. In particular, we show that the most likely translations under the model accumulate so little probability mass that the mode can be considered essentially arbitrary. We therefore advocate for the use of decision rules that take into account the translation distribution holistically. We show that an approximation to minimum Bayes risk decoding gives competitive results confirming that NMT models do capture important aspects of translation well in expectation.

We present a deep generative model of bilingual sentence pairs for machine translation. The model generates source and target sentences jointly from a shared latent representation and is parameterised by neural networks. We perform efficient training using amortised variational inference and reparameterised gradients. Additionally, we discuss the statistical implications of joint modelling and propose an efficient approximation to maximum a posteriori decoding for fast test-time predictions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in three machine translation scenarios: in-domain training, mixed-domain training, and learning from a mix of gold-standard and synthetic data. Our experiments show consistently that our joint formulation outperforms conditional modelling (i.e. standard neural machine translation) in all such scenarios.