This paper studies speculative reasoning task on real-world knowledge graphs (KG) that contain both false negative issue (i.e., potential true facts being excluded) and false positive issue (i.e., unreliable or outdated facts being included). State-of-the-art methods fall short in the speculative reasoning ability, as they assume the correctness of a fact is solely determined by its presence in KG, making them vulnerable to false negative/positive issues. The new reasoning task is formulated as a noisy Positive-Unlabeled learning problem. We propose a variational framework, namely nPUGraph, that jointly estimates the correctness of both collected and uncollected facts (which we call label posterior) and updates model parameters during training. The label posterior estimation facilitates speculative reasoning from two perspectives. First, it improves the robustness of a label posterior-aware graph encoder against false positive links. Second, it identifies missing facts to provide high-quality grounds of reasoning. They are unified in a simple yet effective self-training procedure. Empirically, extensive experiments on three benchmark KG and one Twitter dataset with various degrees of false negative/positive cases demonstrate the effectiveness of nPUGraph.

Predicting how a user responds to news events enables important applications such as allowing intelligent agents or content producers to estimate the effect on different communities and revise unreleased messages to prevent unexpected bad outcomes such as social conflict and moral injury. We present a new task, Response Forecasting on Personas for News Media, to estimate the response a persona (characterizing an individual or a group) might have upon seeing a news message. Compared to the previous efforts which only predict generic comments to news, the proposed task not only introduces personalization in the modeling but also predicts the sentiment polarity and intensity of each response. This enables more accurate and comprehensive inference on the mental state of the persona. Meanwhile, the generated sentiment dimensions make the evaluation and application more reliable. We create the first benchmark dataset, which consists of 13,357 responses to 3,847 news headlines from Twitter. We further evaluate the SOTA neural language models with our dataset. The empirical results suggest that the included persona attributes are helpful for the performance of all response dimensions. Our analysis shows that the best-performing models are capable of predicting responses that are consistent with the personas, and as a byproduct, the task formulation also enables many interesting applications in the analysis of social network groups and their opinions, such as the discovery of extreme opinion groups.

On social media, additional context is often present in the form of annotations and meta-data such as the post’s author, mentions, Hashtags, and hyperlinks. We refer to these annotations as Non-Textual Units (NTUs). We posit that NTUs provide social context beyond their textual semantics and leveraging these units can enrich social media text representations. In this work we construct an NTU-centric social heterogeneous network to co-embed NTUs. We then principally integrate these NTU embeddings into a large pretrained language model by fine-tuning with these additional units. This adds context to noisy short-text social media. Experiments show that utilizing NTU-augmented text representations significantly outperforms existing text-only baselines by 2-5% relative points on many downstream tasks highlighting the importance of context to social media NLP. We also highlight that including NTU context into the initial layers of language model alongside text is better than using it after the text embedding is generated. Our work leads to the generation of holistic general purpose social media content embedding.