Despite tremendous advancements in large language models (LLMs) over recent years, a notably urgent challenge for their practical deployment is the phenomenon of "hallucination”, where the model fabricates facts and produces non-factual statements. In response, we propose PoLLMgraph—a Polygraph for LLMs—as an effective model-based white-box detection and forecasting approach. PoLLMgraph distinctly differs from the large body of existing research that concentrates on addressing such challenges through black-box evaluations. In particular, we demonstrate that hallucination can be effectively detected by analyzing the LLM’s internal state transition dynamics during generation via tractable probabilistic models. Experimental results on various open-source LLMs confirm the efficacy of PoLLMgraph, outperforming state-of-the-art methods by a considerable margin, evidenced by over 20% improvement in AUC-ROC on common benchmarking datasets like TruthfulQA. Our work paves a new way for model-based white-box analysis of LLMs, motivating the research community to further explore, understand, and refine the intricate dynamics of LLM behaviors.

The advancement of large language models (LLMs) has enhanced the ability to generalize across a wide range of unseen natural language processing (NLP) tasks through instruction-following.Yet, their effectiveness often diminishes in low-resource languages like Chinese, exacerbated by biased evaluations from data leakage, casting doubt on their true generalizability to new linguistic territories. In response, we introduce the Chinese Instruction-Following Benchmark (**CIF-Bench**), designed to evaluate the zero-shot generalizability of LLMs to the Chinese language. CIF-Bench comprises 150 tasks and 15,000 input-output pairs, developed by native speakers to test complex reasoning and Chinese cultural nuances across 20 categories. To mitigate data contamination, we release only half of the dataset publicly, with the remainder kept private, and introduce diversified instructions to minimize score variance, totaling 45,000 data instances.Our evaluation of 28 selected LLMs reveals a noticeable performance gap, with the best model scoring only 52.9%, highlighting the limitations of LLMs in less familiar language and task contexts.This work not only uncovers the current limitations of LLMs in handling Chinese language tasks but also sets a new standard for future LLM generalizability research, pushing towards the development of more adaptable, culturally informed, and linguistically diverse models.