Hilal Pataci


2022

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Stock Price Volatility Prediction: A Case Study with AutoML
Hilal Pataci | Yunyao Li | Yannis Katsis | Yada Zhu | Lucian Popa
Proceedings of the Fourth Workshop on Financial Technology and Natural Language Processing (FinNLP)

Accurate prediction of the stock price volatility, the rate at which the price of a stock increases or decreases over a particular period, is an important problem in finance. Inaccurate prediction of stock price volatility might lead to investment risk and financial loss, while accurate prediction might generate significant returns for investors. Several studies investigated stock price volatility prediction in a regression task by using the transcripts of earning calls (quarterly conference calls held by public companies) with Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. Existing studies use the entire transcript and this degrades the performance due to noise caused by irrelevant information that might not have a significant impact on stock price volatility. In order to overcome these limitations, by considering stock price volatility prediction as a classification task, we explore several denoising approaches, ranging from general-purpose approaches to techniques specific to finance to remove the noise, and leverage AutoML systems that enable auto-exploration of a wide variety of models. Our preliminary findings indicate that domain-specific denoising approaches provide better results than general-purpose approaches, moreover AutoML systems provide promising results.

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DigiCall: A Benchmark for Measuring the Maturity of Digital Strategy through Company Earning Calls
Hilal Pataci | Kexuan Sun | T. Ravichandran
Proceedings of the Fourth Workshop on Financial Technology and Natural Language Processing (FinNLP)

Digital transformation reinvents companies, their vision and strategy, organizational structure, processes, capabilities, and culture, and enables the development of new or enhanced products and services delivered to customers more efficiently. Organizations, by formalizing their digital strategy attempt to plan for their digital transformations and accelerate their company growth. Understanding how successful a company is in its digital transformation starts with accurate measurement of its digital maturity levels. However, existing approaches to measuring organizations’ digital strategy have low accuracy levels and this leads to inconsistent results, and also does not provide resources (data) for future research to improve. In order to measure the digital strategy maturity of companies, we leverage the state-of-the-art NLP models on unstructured data (earning call transcripts), and reach the state-of-the-art levels (94%) for this task. We release 3.691 earning call transcripts and also annotated data set, labeled particularly for the digital strategy maturity by linguists. Our work provides an empirical baseline for research in industry and management science.