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Modeling COVID-19 Latent Prevalence to Assess a Public Health Intervention at a State and Regional Scale: Retrospective Cohort Study
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Actualmente la epidemia COVID-19 se está desarrollando en la Ciudad de Culiac'an Sinaloa, México, donde hasta el 20 de abril del presente ao ha ocurrido 35 decesos asociados con esta epidemia. El n'umero de reproducci'on $(R_0)$ de una epidemia representa el n'umero promedio de personas contagiadas por una persona infectada durante su periodo de infecci'on. En este trabajo usamos los datos publicados por la Secretaria de Salud del Estado de Sinaloa sobre el n'umero de nuevos casos infectados confirmados por da y estimamos que el valor de $R_0$ es de 1.562 con un intervalo del 95% de confianza dado por (1.401,1.742). Estimamos también la mortalidad de los confirmados casos, que tuvo lugar en 16.8%.
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Maternal respiratory SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy is associated with a robust inflammatory response at the maternal-fetal interface
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2.2 - 4.4
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Wearing and Physical Distancing Increase the Odds of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Control in the USA.
Modeling study based on mobile phone data to build a transmission model for COVID-19 in Shenzhen, China.
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Non-visit-based and non-infection-related antibiotic use in the US: a cohort study of privately insured patients during 2016-2018
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Wuhan City, China, in 2019-2020.
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The study is the first to use SEIR-based epidemic modeling method to estimate the spread of COVID-19 and healthcare demand in Turkey.
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If the proportion of asymptomatic or unascertained cases is larger than 30%, contact tracing and isolation cannot achieve containment for an R0 of 2.5
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RESULTS: The primary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan was mainly due to the presence of asymptomatic cases. The secondary attack rate was 156%. The primary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was mainly due to the presence of infants aged 0-1 years. The secondary attack rate was 156%. The primary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was mainly due to the presence of asymptomatic cases.
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Maximum a posteriori estimates range from 7.1 for New Jersey to 2.3 for Wyoming
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national pandemic curve revealed a bimodal winter pandemic wave, with the first peak limited to school age children in the Lima metropolitan area, and the second peak more geographically widespread.
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Transmission dynamics and estimation of basic reproduction number (R0 ) from early outbreak of novel coronavirus (covid-19) in india
R0 is the basic reproduction number estimate (R0)
Predicciones de un modelo SEIR para casos de COVID-19 en Cali, Colombia/ Predicciones de un modelo SEIR para casos de COVID-19 en Cali, Colombia/
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COVID-19 epidemic.
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COVID-19
Spain is among the countries worst hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, with one of the highest rate of infections and deaths per million inhabitants. First positive was reported on late January 2020. Mid March, with 7000 confirmed cases, nationwide lockdown was imposed. Mid May the epidemic was stabilized and government eased measures. Here we model the dynamics of the epidemic in Spain over the whole span, and study the effectiveness of control measures. The model is also applied to Italy and Germany. We propose formulas to easily estimate the size of the outbreak and the benefit of early intervention. A susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model was used to simulate the epidemic. The growth and transmission rates, doubling time, and reproductive number were estimated by least-mean-square fitting of daily cases. Time-series data were obtained from official government reports. We forecasted the epidemic curve after lockdown under different effectiveness scenarios, and nowcasted the trend by moving average sliding window. Exponential growth expressions were derived. Outbreak progression remained under the early growth dynamics. The basic reproductive number in Spain was 2.5â â 0.1 (95% CI 2.3-2.7), and the doubling time was 2.8â â 0.1 days (95% CI 2.6-3.0). Slight variations in measures effectiveness produce a large divergence in the epidemic size. The effectiveness in Spain was 68%, above control threshold (60%). During lockdown the reproductive number dropped to an average of 0.81â â 0.02 (95% CI 0.77-0.85). Estimated epidemic size is about 300,000 cases. A 7-days advance of measures yields a reduction to 38%.
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Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 reveals disease transmission coupled to variant emergence and allelic variation.
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COVID-19
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The UK government has proposed a range of strategies to reopen schools in phases from June 2020, including the current proposal.
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The model takes account of the unconfined individuals that continue to work or to leave their home for urgent needs and the existence of infectious asymptomatic and unreported individuals within susceptible population.
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MODEL: A compartmental modelling and numerical optimization approach
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p0.0005).
mRNA vaccination of previously infected individuals with no history of acute viral diagnostic testing is sufficient to elicit high levels of immunity.
disease name, location, date, R0 value, %CI values
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Despite the limitations of genomics for outbreak reconstruction, we found that HCWs played an essential role in cross-transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
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The results suggest that case-based interventions are not sufficient to control COVID-19 outbreaks in Taiwan. Population-based interventions are more effective than case-based interventions in reducing COVID-19 outbreaks.
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In the absence of vaccine availability for children, a targeted approach to rapidly identify silent COVID-19 infections in this age group could significantly mitigate disease burden.
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What are the values for the properties of the basic reproduction number estimate (R0): disease name, location, date, R0 value, %CI values, and method?
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Epidemiological Study of Infection and Death Due to COVID-19 in Fars Province, Iran, From February to September 2020
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COVID-19 infection rate was lower than the NYC model, and the IFR was higher.
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The new models provided much better estimates than the previous model because they more precisely capture the de novo infection process. Both models describe the acute phase of HIV-1 infected humanized mice reasonably well, and we estimated an average death rate of infected cells of 0.61 and 0.61, an average exponential growth rate of 0.69 and 0.76, and an average basic reproduction number of 2.30 and 2.38 in the RQS model and the PWR model, respectively. These estimates are fairly close to those obtained in humans.
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based on publicly available time-series data on prevalence and fatalities.
[Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Gansu province]
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Kungunya, are used to validate our model.
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age was higher than that of adult and elderly people.
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The availability of estimates of R0 for SARS-CoV-2 is limited.
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disease name disease name location date R0
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We report state-level estimates of basic reproduction numbers for COVID-19 in the United States using Bayesian inference.
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The Gambia needs to improve its capacity to provide palliative care services.
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The combined intervention scenario had a significantly larger effect on the spread of the outbreak than the baseline scenario.
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The 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile was characterized by a latitudinal gradient in peak pandemic activity, a 16-39-day lag in disease activity from the southern regions relative to the northernmost region.
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Multilevel Generalised Linear Mixed Model to estimate the relationship between NPIs and human mobility.
model) is achieved by combining vaccination with face mask use.
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Review authors assessed the validity of the evidence with the 'Risk of bias' assessment.
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phenotype, cytokine expression, cytokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine titer, chemokine
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COVID-19 burden in the Rohingya refugee camps of Bangladesh
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Single-arm, double-blind, prospective trial, L. plantarum induces a high innate cytokine index in all subjects.
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A metapopulation modelling approach to the COVID-19 pandemic in India and Pakistan
week, we found that combined isolation and tracing strategies would reduce transmission more than mass testing or self-isolation alone.
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SHR0302 is a highly selective, Janus kinase 1 inhibitor under investigation for inflammatory skin diseases.
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