It has been well recognized that text classification can be satisfactorily performed by Deep Neural Network (DNN) models, provided that there are sufficient in-distribution training data. However, in the presence of distribution drift, a well trained DNN model may not perform well on a new dataset even though class labels are aligned between training and target datasets. To alleviate this limitation, we propose a novel approach based on model risk analysis to adapt a pre-trained DNN model towards a new dataset given only a small set of representative data. We first present a solution of model risk analysis for text classification, which can effectively quantify misprediction risk of a classifier on a dataset. Built upon the existing framework of LearnRisk, the proposed solution, denoted by LearnRisk-TC, first generates interpretable risk features, then constructs a risk model by aggregating these features, and finally trains the risk model on a small set of labeled data. Furthermore, we present a transfer learning solution based on model risk analysis, which can effectively fine-tune a pre-trained model toward a target dataset by minimizing its misprediction risk. We have conducted extensive experiments on real datasets. Our experimental results show that the proposed solution performs considerably better than the existing alternative approaches. By using text classification as a test case, we demonstrate the potential applicability of risk-based transfer learning to various challenging NLP tasks. Our codes are available at https://github.com/syjcomputer/LRTC.