Mental health is not a fixed trait but a dynamic process shaped by the interplay between individual dispositions and situational contexts. Building on interactionist and constructionist psychological theories, we develop interpretable models to predict well-being and identify adaptive and maladaptive self-states in longitudinal social media data. Our approach integrates person-level psychological traits (e.g., resilience, cognitive distortions, implicit motives) with language-inferred situational features derived from the Situational 8 DIAMONDS framework. We compare these theory-grounded features to embeddings from a psychometrically-informed language model that captures temporal and individual-specific patterns. Results show that our principled, theory-driven features provide competitive performance while offering greater interpretability. Qualitative analyses further highlight the psychological coherence of features most predictive of well-being. These findings underscore the value of integrating computational modeling with psychological theory to assess dynamic mental states in contextually sensitive and human-understandable ways.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in human-centered applications, yet their ability to model diverse psychological constructs is not well understood. In this study, we systematically evaluate a range of Transformer-LMs to predict psychological variables across five major dimensions: affect, substance use, mental health, sociodemographics, and personality. Analyses span three temporal levels—short daily text responses about current affect, text aggregated over two-weeks, and user-level text collected over two years—allowing us to examine how each model’s strengths align with the underlying stability of different constructs. The findings show that mental health signals emerge as the most accurately predicted dimensions (r=0.6) across all temporal scales. At the daily scale, smaller models like DeBERTa and HaRT often performed better, whereas, at longer scales or with greater context, larger model like Llama3-8B performed the best. Also, aggregating text over the entire study period yielded stronger correlations for outcomes, such as age and income. Overall, these results suggest the importance of selecting appropriate model architectures and temporal aggregation techniques based on the stability and nature of the target variable.

Analyses for linking language with psychological factors or behaviors predominately treat linguistic features as a static set, working with a single document per person or aggregating across multiple posts (e.g. on social media) into a single set of features. This limits language to mostly shed light on between-person differences rather than changes in behavior within-person. Here, we collected a novel dataset of daily surveys where participants were asked to describe their experienced well-being and report the number of alcoholic beverages they had within the past 24 hours. Through this data, we first build a multi-level forecasting model that is able to capture within-person change and leverage both the psychological features of the person and daily well-being responses. Then, we propose a longitudinal version of differential language analysis that finds patterns associated with drinking more (e.g. social events) and less (e.g. task-oriented), as well as distinguishing patterns of heavy drinks versus light drinkers.

Very large language models (LLMs) perform extremely well on a spectrum of NLP tasks in a zero-shot setting. However, little is known about their performance on human-level NLP problems which rely on understanding psychological concepts, such as assessing personality traits. In this work, we investigate the zero-shot ability of GPT-3 to estimate the Big 5 personality traits from users’ social media posts. Through a set of systematic experiments, we find that zero-shot GPT-3 performance is somewhat close to an existing pre-trained SotA for broad classification upon injecting knowledge about the trait in the prompts. However, when prompted to provide fine-grained classification, its performance drops to close to a simple most frequent class (MFC) baseline. We further analyze where GPT-3 performs better, as well as worse, than a pretrained lexical model, illustrating systematic errors that suggest ways to improve LLMs on human-level NLP tasks. The code for this project is available on Github.