Large Language Model (LLM) Uncertainty Estimation (UE) methods have become a crucial tool for detecting hallucinations in recent years. While numerous UE methods have been proposed, most existing studies evaluate them in isolated short-form QA settings using threshold-independent metrics such as AUROC or PRR. However, real-world deployment of UE methods introduces several challenges. In this work, we systematically examine four key aspects of deploying UE methods in practical settings. Specifically, we assess (1) the sensitivity of UE methods to decision threshold selection, (2) their robustness to query transformations such as typos, adversarial prompts, and prior chat history, (3) their applicability to long-form generation, and (4) strategies for handling multiple UE scores for a single query. Our evaluations on 19 UE methods reveal that most of them are highly sensitive to threshold selection when there is a distribution shift in the calibration dataset. While these methods generally exhibit robustness against previous chat history and typos, they are significantly vulnerable to adversarial prompts. Additionally, while existing UE methods can be adapted for long-form generation through various strategies, there remains considerable room for improvement. Lastly, ensembling multiple UE scores at test time provides a notable performance boost, which highlights its potential as a practical improvement strategy. Code is available at: https://github.com/duygunuryldz/uncertainty_in_the_wild.

Uncertainty estimation (UE) of generative large language models (LLMs) is crucial for evaluating the reliability of generated sequences. A significant subset of UE methods utilize token probabilities to assess uncertainty, aggregating multiple token probabilities into a single UE score using a scoring function. Existing scoring functions for probability-based UE, such as length-normalized scoring and semantic contribution-based weighting, are designed to solve certain aspects of the problem but exhibit limitations, including the inability to handle biased probabilities and complex semantic dependencies between tokens. To address these issues, in this work, we propose Learnable Response Scoring (LARS) function, a novel scoring function that leverages supervised data to capture complex dependencies between tokens and probabilities, thereby producing more reliable and calibrated response scores in computing the uncertainty of LLM generations. Our comprehensive experiments across question-answering and arithmetical reasoning tasks with various datasets demonstrate that LARS significantly outperforms existing scoring functions, achieving improvements of up to 16% AUROC score.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performances in tasks related to coreference resolution. However, previous studies mostly assessed LLM performance on coreference resolution with nouns and third person pronouns. This study evaluates LLM performance on coreference resolution with indexical like I, you, here and tomorrow which come with unique challenges due to their linguistic properties. We present the first study examining how LLMs interpret indexicals in English, releasing the English Indexical Dataset with 1600 multiple-choice questions. We evaluate pioneering LLMs, including GPT-4o, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Gemini 1.5 Pro, and DeepSeek V3. Our results reveal that LLMs exhibit an impressive performance with some indexicals (I), while struggling with others (you, here, tomorrow), and that syntactic cues (e.g. quotation) contribute to LLM performance with some indexicals, while they reduce performance with others. Code and data are available at: https://github.com/metehanoguzz/LLMs-Indexicals-English

Generative Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely utilized for their excellence in various tasks. However, their tendency to produce inaccurate or misleading outputs poses a potential risk, particularly in high-stakes environments. Therefore, estimating the correctness of generative LLM outputs is an important task for enhanced reliability. Uncertainty Estimation (UE) in generative LLMs is an evolving domain, where SOTA probability-based methods commonly employ length-normalized scoring. In this work, we propose Meaning-Aware Response Scoring (MARS) as an alternative to length-normalized scoring for UE methods. MARS is a novel scoring function that considers the semantic contribution of each token in the generated sequence in the context of the question. We demonstrate that integrating MARS into UE methods results in a universal and significant improvement in UE performance. We conduct experiments using three distinct closed-book question-answering datasets across five popular pre-trained LLMs. Lastly, we validate the efficacy of MARS on a Medical QA dataset. Code can be found here.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities in tasks such as machine translation, text summarization, question answering, and solving complex mathematical problems. However, their primary training on data-rich languages like English limits their performance in low-resource languages. This study addresses this gap by focusing on the Indexical Shift problem in Turkish. The Indexical Shift problem involves resolving pronouns in indexical shift contexts, a grammatical challenge not present in high-resource languages like English. We present the first study examining indexical shift in any language, releasing a Turkish dataset specifically designed for this purpose. Our Indexical Shift Dataset consists of 156 multiple-choice questions, each annotated with necessary linguistic details, to evaluate LLMs in a few-shot setting. We evaluate recent multilingual LLMs, including GPT-4, GPT-3.5, Cohere-AYA, Trendyol-LLM, and Turkcell-LLM, using this dataset. Our analysis reveals that even advanced models like GPT-4 struggle with the grammatical nuances of indexical shift in Turkish, achieving only moderate performance. These findings underscore the need for focused research on the grammatical challenges posed by low-resource languages. We released the dataset and code here.