We present MELLE, a novel continuous-valued token based language modeling approach for text-to-speech synthesis (TTS). MELLE autoregressively generates continuous mel-spectrogram frames directly from text condition, bypassing the need for vector quantization, which is typically designed for audio compression and sacrifices fidelity compared to continuous representations. Specifically, (i) instead of cross-entropy loss, we apply regression loss with a proposed spectrogram flux loss function to model the probability distribution of the continuous-valued tokens; (ii) we have incorporated variational inference into MELLE to facilitate sampling mechanisms, thereby enhancing the output diversity and model robustness. Experiments demonstrate that, compared to the two-stage codec language model VALL-E and its variants, the single-stage MELLE mitigates robustness issues by avoiding the inherent flaws of sampling vector-quantized codes, achieves superior performance across multiple metrics, and, most importantly, offers a more streamlined paradigm. The demos of our work are provided at https://aka.ms/melle.

Non-autoregressive (NAR) models generate all the tokens of a sequence in parallel, resulting in faster generation speed compared to their autoregressive (AR) counterparts but at the cost of lower accuracy. Different techniques including knowledge distillation and source-target alignment have been proposed to bridge the gap between AR and NAR models in various tasks such as neural machine translation (NMT), automatic speech recognition (ASR), and text to speech (TTS). With the help of those techniques, NAR models can catch up with the accuracy of AR models in some tasks but not in some others. In this work, we conduct a study to understand the difficulty of NAR sequence generation and try to answer: (1) Why NAR models can catch up with AR models in some tasks but not all? (2) Why techniques like knowledge distillation and source-target alignment can help NAR models. Since the main difference between AR and NAR models is that NAR models do not use dependency among target tokens while AR models do, intuitively the difficulty of NAR sequence generation heavily depends on the strongness of dependency among target tokens. To quantify such dependency, we propose an analysis model called CoMMA to characterize the difficulty of different NAR sequence generation tasks. We have several interesting findings: 1) Among the NMT, ASR and TTS tasks, ASR has the most target-token dependency while TTS has the least. 2) Knowledge distillation reduces the target-token dependency in target sequence and thus improves the accuracy of NAR models. 3) Source-target alignment constraint encourages dependency of a target token on source tokens and thus eases the training of NAR models.