@inproceedings{michaelov-etal-2025-quite, title = "Not quite Sherlock Holmes: Language model predictions do not reliably differentiate impossible from improbable events", author = "Michaelov, James A. and Estacio, Reeka and Zhang, Zhien and Bergen, Ben", editor = "Che, Wanxiang and Nabende, Joyce and Shutova, Ekaterina and Pilehvar, Mohammad Taher", booktitle = "Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2025", month = jul, year = "2025", address = "Vienna, Austria", publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics", url = "https://preview.aclanthology.org/landing_page/2025.findings-acl.696/", pages = "13528--13551", ISBN = "979-8-89176-256-5" }