Qiwei Zhao
2025
Uncertainty Propagation on LLM Agent
Qiwei Zhao
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Dong Li
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Yanchi Liu
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Wei Cheng
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Yiyou Sun
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Mika Oishi
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Takao Osaki
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Katsushi Matsuda
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Huaxiu Yao
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Chen Zhao
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Haifeng Chen
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Xujiang Zhao
Proceedings of the 63rd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)
Large language models (LLMs) integrated into multi-step agent systems enable complex decision-making processes across various applications. However, their outputs often lack reliability, making uncertainty estimation crucial. Existing uncertainty estimation methods primarily focus on final-step outputs, which fail to account for cumulative uncertainty over the multi-step decision-making process and the dynamic interactions between agents and their environments. To address these limitations, we propose SAUP (Situation Awareness Uncertainty Propagation), a novel framework that propagates uncertainty through each step of an LLM-based agent’s reasoning process. SAUP incorporates situational awareness by assigning situational weights to each step’s uncertainty during the propagation. Our method, compatible with various one-step uncertainty estimation techniques, provides a comprehensive and accurate uncertainty measure. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that SAUP significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods, achieving up to 20% improvement in AUROC.
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- Haifeng Chen 1
- Wei Cheng 1
- Dong Li 1
- Yanchi Liu 1
- Katsushi Matsuda 1
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