AnRe: Analogical Replay for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting

Guo Tang, Zheng Chu, Wenxiang Zheng, Junjia Xiang, Yizhuo Li, Weihao Zhang, Ming Liu, Bing Qin


Abstract
Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs) are vital for event prediction, yet current methods face limitations. Graph neural networks mainly depend on structural information, often overlooking semantic understanding and requiring high computational costs. Meanwhile, Large Language Models (LLMs) support zero-shot reasoning but lack sufficient capabilities to grasp the laws of historical event development. To tackle these challenges, we introduce a training-free Analogical Replay (AnRe) reasoning framework. Our approach retrieves similar events for queries through semantic-driven clustering and builds comprehensive historical contexts using a dual history extraction module that integrates long-term and short-term history. It then uses LLMs to generate analogical reasoning examples as contextual inputs, enabling the model to deeply understand historical patterns of similar events and improve its ability to predict unknown ones. Our experiments on four benchmarks show that AnRe significantly exceeds traditional training and existing LLM-based methods. Further ablation studies also confirm the effectiveness of the dual history extraction and analogical replay mechanisms.
Anthology ID:
2025.acl-long.231
Volume:
Proceedings of the 63rd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)
Month:
July
Year:
2025
Address:
Vienna, Austria
Editors:
Wanxiang Che, Joyce Nabende, Ekaterina Shutova, Mohammad Taher Pilehvar
Venue:
ACL
SIG:
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
4632–4650
Language:
URL:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingestion-acl-25/2025.acl-long.231/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Guo Tang, Zheng Chu, Wenxiang Zheng, Junjia Xiang, Yizhuo Li, Weihao Zhang, Ming Liu, and Bing Qin. 2025. AnRe: Analogical Replay for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting. In Proceedings of the 63rd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers), pages 4632–4650, Vienna, Austria. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
AnRe: Analogical Replay for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting (Tang et al., ACL 2025)
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PDF:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingestion-acl-25/2025.acl-long.231.pdf