@inproceedings{kamigaito-etal-2025-diversity,
    title = "Diversity Explains Inference Scaling Laws: Through a Case Study of Minimum {B}ayes Risk Decoding",
    author = "Kamigaito, Hidetaka  and
      Deguchi, Hiroyuki  and
      Sakai, Yusuke  and
      Hayashi, Katsuhiko  and
      Watanabe, Taro",
    editor = "Che, Wanxiang  and
      Nabende, Joyce  and
      Shutova, Ekaterina  and
      Pilehvar, Mohammad Taher",
    booktitle = "Proceedings of the 63rd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)",
    month = jul,
    year = "2025",
    address = "Vienna, Austria",
    publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
    url = "https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingestion-acl-25/2025.acl-long.1410/",
    pages = "29060--29094",
    ISBN = "979-8-89176-251-0",
    abstract = "Inference methods play an important role in eliciting the performance of large language models (LLMs). Currently, LLMs use inference methods utilizing generated multiple samples, which can be derived from Minimum Bayes Risk (MBR) Decoding. Previous studies have conducted empirical analyses to clarify the improvements in generation performance achieved by MBR decoding and have reported various observations. However, the theoretical underpinnings of these findings remain uncertain. To address this, we offer a new theoretical interpretation of MBR decoding from the perspective of bias{--}diversity decomposition. In this interpretation, the error in the quality estimation of hypotheses by MBR decoding is decomposed into two main factors: bias, which considers the closeness between the utility function and human evaluation, and diversity, which represents the variability in the quality estimation of the utility function. The theoretical analysis reveals the difficulty of simultaneously improving bias and diversity, confirming the validity of enhancing MBR decoding performance by increasing diversity. Furthermore, we reveal that diversity can explain one aspect of inference scaling laws that describe performance improvement by increasing sample size. Moreover, experiments across multiple NLP tasks yielded results consistent with these theoretical characteristics. Our code is available at https://github.com/naist-nlp/mbr-bias-diversity."
}