How Well Does First-Token Entropy Approximate Word Entropy as a Psycholinguistic Predictor?

Christian Clark, Byung-Doh Oh, William Schuler


Abstract
Contextual entropy is a psycholinguistic measure capturing the anticipated difficulty of processing a word just before it is encountered. Recent studies have tested for entropy-related effects as a potential complement to well-known effects from surprisal. For convenience, entropy is typically estimated based on a language model’s probability distribution over a word’s first subword token. However, this approximation results in underestimation and potential distortion of true word entropy. To address this, we generate Monte Carlo (MC) estimates of word entropy that allow words to span a variable number of tokens. Regression experiments on reading times show divergent results between first-token and MC word entropy, suggesting a need for caution in using first-token approximations of contextual entropy.
Anthology ID:
2025.ijcnlp-short.4
Volume:
Proceedings of the 14th International Joint Conference on Natural Language Processing and the 4th Conference of the Asia-Pacific Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics
Month:
December
Year:
2025
Address:
Mumbai, India
Editors:
Kentaro Inui, Sakriani Sakti, Haofen Wang, Derek F. Wong, Pushpak Bhattacharyya, Biplab Banerjee, Asif Ekbal, Tanmoy Chakraborty, Dhirendra Pratap Singh
Venues:
IJCNLP | AACL
SIG:
Publisher:
The Asian Federation of Natural Language Processing and The Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
47–57
Language:
URL:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-ijcnlp-aacl/2025.ijcnlp-short.4/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Christian Clark, Byung-Doh Oh, and William Schuler. 2025. How Well Does First-Token Entropy Approximate Word Entropy as a Psycholinguistic Predictor?. In Proceedings of the 14th International Joint Conference on Natural Language Processing and the 4th Conference of the Asia-Pacific Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics, pages 47–57, Mumbai, India. The Asian Federation of Natural Language Processing and The Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
How Well Does First-Token Entropy Approximate Word Entropy as a Psycholinguistic Predictor? (Clark et al., IJCNLP-AACL 2025)
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PDF:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-ijcnlp-aacl/2025.ijcnlp-short.4.pdf