Beyond statistical significance: Quantifying uncertainty and statistical variability in multilingual and multitask NLP evaluation

Jonne Sälevä, Duygu Ataman, Constantine Lignos


Abstract
We introduce a set of resampling-based methods for quantifying uncertainty and statistical precision of evaluation metrics in multilingual and/or multitask NLP benchmarks.We show how experimental variation in performance scores arises from both model and data-related sources, and that accounting for both of them is necessary to avoid substantially underestimating the overall variability over hypothetical replications.Using multilingual question answering, machine translation, and named entity recognition as example tasks, we also demonstrate how resampling methods are useful for quantifying the replication uncertainty of various quantities used in leaderboards such as model rankings and pairwise differences between models.
Anthology ID:
2025.ijcnlp-long.125
Volume:
Proceedings of the 14th International Joint Conference on Natural Language Processing and the 4th Conference of the Asia-Pacific Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics
Month:
December
Year:
2025
Address:
Mumbai, India
Editors:
Kentaro Inui, Sakriani Sakti, Haofen Wang, Derek F. Wong, Pushpak Bhattacharyya, Biplab Banerjee, Asif Ekbal, Tanmoy Chakraborty, Dhirendra Pratap Singh
Venues:
IJCNLP | AACL
SIG:
Publisher:
The Asian Federation of Natural Language Processing and The Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
2304–2321
Language:
URL:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-ijcnlp-aacl/2025.ijcnlp-long.125/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Jonne Sälevä, Duygu Ataman, and Constantine Lignos. 2025. Beyond statistical significance: Quantifying uncertainty and statistical variability in multilingual and multitask NLP evaluation. In Proceedings of the 14th International Joint Conference on Natural Language Processing and the 4th Conference of the Asia-Pacific Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics, pages 2304–2321, Mumbai, India. The Asian Federation of Natural Language Processing and The Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
Beyond statistical significance: Quantifying uncertainty and statistical variability in multilingual and multitask NLP evaluation (Sälevä et al., IJCNLP-AACL 2025)
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https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-ijcnlp-aacl/2025.ijcnlp-long.125.pdf