LLMs often adopt an assertive language style also when making false claims. Such ”overconfident hallucinations” mislead users and erode trust. Achieving the ability to express in language the actual degree of uncertainty around a claim is therefore of great importance. We find that ”verbal uncertainty” is governed by a single linear feature in the representation space of LLMs, and shows that this has only moderate correlation with the actual ”semantic uncertainty” of the model. We apply this insight and show that (1) the mismatch between semantic and verbal uncertainty is a better predictor of hallucinations than semantic uncertainty alone and (2) we can intervene on verbal uncertainty at inference time and reduce confident hallucinations on short-form answers, achieving an average relative reduction of ~30%.

The recently released NLLB-200 is a set of multilingual Neural Machine Translation models that cover 202 languages. The largest model is based on a Mixture of Experts architecture and achieves SoTA results across many language pairs. It contains 54.5B parameters and requires at least four 32GB GPUs just for inference. In this work, we propose a pruning method that enables the removal of up to 80% of experts without further finetuning and with a negligible loss in translation quality, which makes it feasible to run the model on a single 32GB GPU. Further analysis suggests that our pruning metrics can identify language-specific experts.