Event forecasting requires modeling historical event data to predict future events, and achieving accurate predictions depends on effectively capturing the relevant historical information that aids forecasting. Most existing methods focus on entities and structural dependencies to capture historical clues but often overlook implicitly relevant information. This limitation arises from overlooking event semantics and deeper factual associations that are not explicitly connected in the graph structure but are nonetheless critical for accurate forecasting. To address this, we propose a dual-criteria constraint strategy that leverages event semantics for relevance modeling and incorporates a self-supervised semantic filter based on factual event associations to capture implicitly relevant historical information. Building on this strategy, our method, termed ITHI (Integrating Three types of Historical Information), combines sequential event information, periodically repeated event information, and relevant historical information to achieve context-aware event forecasting. We evaluated the proposed ITHI method on three public benchmark datasets, achieving state-of-the-art performance and significantly outperforming existing approaches. Additionally, we validated its effectiveness on two structured temporal knowledge graph forecasting dataset.

Narratives have been shown to be an effective way to communicate health risks and promote health behavior change, and given the growing amount of health information being shared on social media, it is crucial to study health-related narratives in social media. However, expert identification of a large number of narrative texts is a time consuming process, and larger scale studies on the use of narratives may be enabled through automatic text classification approaches. Prior work has demonstrated that automatic narrative detection is possible, but modern deep learning approaches have not been used for this task in the domain of online health communities. Therefore, in this paper, we explore the use of deep learning methods to automatically classify the presence of narratives in social media posts, finding that they outperform previously proposed approaches. We also find that in many cases, these models generalize well across posts from different health organizations. Finally, in order to better understand the increase in performance achieved by deep learning models, we use feature analysis techniques to explore the features that most contribute to narrative detection for posts in online health communities.