Large language models (LLMs) present novel opportunities in public opinion research by predicting survey responses in advance during the early stages of survey design. Prior methods steer LLMs via descriptions of subpopulations as LLMs’ input prompt, yet such prompt engineering approaches have struggled to faithfully predict the distribution of survey responses from human subjects. In this work, we propose directly fine-tuning LLMs to predict response distributions by leveraging unique structural characteristics of survey data. To enable fine-tuning, we curate SubPOP, a significantly scaled dataset of 3,362 questions and 70K subpopulation-response pairs from well-established public opinion surveys. We show that fine-tuning on SubPOP greatly improves the match between LLM predictions and human responses across various subpopulations, reducing the LLM-human gap by up to 46% compared to baselines, and achieves strong generalization to unseen surveys and subpopulations. Our findings highlight the potential of survey-based fine-tuning to improve opinion prediction for diverse, real-world subpopulations and therefore enable more efficient survey designs.

Rebus puzzles, visual riddles that encode language through imagery, spatial arrangement, and symbolic substitution, pose a unique challenge to current vision-language models (VLMs). Unlike traditional image captioning or question answering tasks, rebus solving requires multimodal abstraction, symbolic reasoning, and a grasp of cultural, phonetic and linguistic puns. In this short paper, we investigate the capacity of contemporary VLMs to interpret and solve rebus puzzles by constructing a hand-generated and annotated benchmark of diverse english-language rebus puzzles, ranging from simple pictographic substitutions to spatially-dependent cues (“head” over “heels”). We analyze how different VLMs perform, and our findings reveal that while VLMs exhibit some surprising capabilities in decoding simple visual clues, they struggle significantly with tasks requiring abstract reasoning, lateral thinking, and understanding visual metaphors.

Large language models (LLMs) are trained from vast repositories of text authored by millions of distinct authors, reflecting an enormous diversity of human traits. While these models bear the potential to be used as approximations of human subjects in behavioral studies, prior efforts have been limited in steering model responses to match individual human users. In this work, we introduce Anthology, a method for conditioning LLMs to particular virtual personas by harnessing open-ended life narratives, which we refer to as backstories. We show that our methodology enhances the consistency and reliability of experimental outcomes while ensuring better representation of diverse sub-populations. Across three nationally representative human surveys conducted as part of Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), we demonstrate that Anthology achieves up to 18% improvement in matching the response distributions of human respondents and 27% improvement in consistency metrics.