Jingcheng Wu
2025
Certainty in Uncertainty: Reasoning over Uncertain Knowledge Graphs with Statistical Guarantees
Yuqicheng Zhu
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Jingcheng Wu
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Yizhen Wang
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Hongkuan Zhou
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Jiaoyan Chen
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Evgeny Kharlamov
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Steffen Staab
Proceedings of the 2025 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing
Uncertain knowledge graph embedding (UnKGE) methods learn vector representations that capture both structural and uncertainty information to predict scores of unseen triples. However, existing methods produce only point estimates, without quantifying predictive uncertainty—limiting their reliability in high-stakes applications where understanding confidence in predictions is crucial. To address this limitation, we propose UnKGCP, a framework that generates prediction intervals guaranteed to contain the true score with a user-specified level of confidence. The length of the intervals reflects the model’s predictive uncertainty. UnKGCP builds on the conformal prediction framework but introduces a novel nonconformity measure tailored to UnKGE methods and an efficient procedure for interval construction. We provide theoretical guarantees for the intervals and empirically verify these guarantees. Extensive experiments on standard UKG benchmarks across diverse UnKGE methods further demonstrate that the intervals are sharp and effectively capture predictive uncertainty.
2024
Temporal Fact Reasoning over Hyper-Relational Knowledge Graphs
Zifeng Ding
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Jingcheng Wu
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Jingpei Wu
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Yan Xia
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Bo Xiong
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Volker Tresp
Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2024
Stemming from traditional knowledge graphs (KGs), hyper-relational KGs (HKGs) provide additional key-value pairs (i.e., qualifiers) for each KG fact that help to better restrict the fact validity. In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in studying graph reasoning over HKGs. Meanwhile, as discussed in recent works that focus on temporal KGs (TKGs), world knowledge is ever-evolving, making it important to reason over temporal facts in KGs. Previous mainstream benchmark HKGs do not explicitly specify temporal information for each HKG fact. Therefore, almost all existing HKG reasoning approaches do not devise any module specifically for temporal reasoning. To better study temporal fact reasoning over HKGs, we propose a new type of data structure named hyper-relational TKG (HTKG). Every fact in an HTKG is coupled with a timestamp explicitly indicating its time validity. We develop two new benchmark HTKG datasets, i.e., Wiki-hy and YAGO-hy, and propose an HTKG reasoning model that efficiently models hyper-relational temporal facts. To support future research on this topic, we open-source our datasets and model.
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- Jiaoyan Chen 1
- Zifeng Ding 1
- Evgeny Kharlamov 1
- Steffen Staab 1
- Volker Tresp 1
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