Sustainability reports are key for evaluating companies’ environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance. To analyze these reports, NLP approaches can efficiently extract ESG insights at scale. However, even the most advanced NLP methods lack robustness against ESG content that is greenwashed – i.e. sustainability claims that are misleading, exaggerated, and fabricated. Accordingly, existing NLP approaches often extract insights that reflect misleading or exaggerated sustainability claims rather than objective ESG performance. To tackle this issue, we introduce A3CG - Aspect-Action Analysis with Cross-Category Generalization, as a novel dataset to improve the robustness of ESG analysis amid the prevalence of greenwashing. By explicitly linking sustainability aspects with their associated actions, A3CG facilitates a more fine-grained and transparent evaluation of sustainability claims, ensuring that insights are grounded in verifiable actions rather than vague or misleading rhetoric. Additionally, A3CG emphasizes cross-category generalization. This ensures robust model performance in aspect-action analysis even when companies change their reports to selectively favor certain sustainability areas. Through experiments on A3CG, we analyze state-of-the-art supervised models and LLMs, uncovering their limitations and outlining key directions for future research.

Counterfactual reasoning typically involves considering alternatives to actual events. While often applied to understand past events, a distinct form—forward counterfactual reasoning—focuses on anticipating plausible future developments. This type of reasoning is invaluable in dynamic financial markets, where anticipating market developments can powerfully unveil potential risks and opportunities for stakeholders, guiding their decision-making. However, performing this at scale is challenging due to the cognitive demands involved, underscoring the need for automated solutions. Large Language Models (LLMs) offer promise, but remain unexplored for this application. To address this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark, Fin-Force—**FIN**ancial **FOR**ward **C**ounterfactual **E**valuation. By curating financial news headlines and providing structured evaluation, Fin-Force supports LLM based forward counterfactual generation. This paves the way for scalable and automated solutions for exploring and anticipating future market developments, thereby providing structured insights for decision-making. Through experiments on Fin-Force, we evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs and counterfactual generation methods, analyzing their limitations and proposing insights for future research.