Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable performance across diverse tasks without domain-specific training, fueling interest in their potential for time-series forecasting. While LLMs have shown potential in zero-shot forecasting through prompting alone, recent studies suggest that LLMs lack inherent effectiveness in forecasting. Given these conflicting findings, a rigorous validation is essential for drawing reliable conclusions. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of LLMs as zero-shot forecasters compared to state-of-the-art domain-specific models. Our experiments show that LLM-based zero-shot forecasters often struggle to achieve high accuracy due to their sensitivity to noise, underperforming even simple domain-specific models. We have explored solutions to reduce LLMs’ sensitivity to noise in the zero-shot setting, but improving their robustness remains a significant challenge. Our findings suggest that rather than emphasizing zero-shot forecasting, a more promising direction would be to focus on fine-tuning LLMs to better process numerical sequences. Our experimental code is available at https://github.com/junwoopark92/revisiting-LLMs-zeroshot-forecaster.

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) offer a promising non-autoregressive alternative for large language modeling. Standard decoding methods for MDMs, such as confidence-based sampling, select tokens independently based on individual token confidences at each diffusion step. However, we observe that this independent token selection often results in generation orders resembling sequential autoregressive processes, limiting the advantages of non-autoregressive modeling. To mitigate this pheonomenon, we propose Reward-Weighted Sampling (RWS), a novel decoding strategy that leverages an external reward model to provide a principled global signal during the iterative diffusion process. Specifically, at each diffusion step, RWS evaluates the quality of the entire intermediate sequence and scales token logits accordingly, guiding token selection by integrating global sequence-level coherence. This method selectively increases the confidence of tokens that initially have lower scores, thereby promoting a more non-autoregressive generation order. Furthermore, we provide theoretical justification showing that reward-weighted logit scaling induces beneficial rank reversals in token selection and consistently improves expected reward. Experiments demonstrate that RWS significantly promotes non-autoregressive generation orders, leading to improvements across multiple evaluation metrics. These results highlight the effectiveness of integrating global signals in enhancing both the non-autoregressive properties and overall performance of MDMs.

Predicting future international events from textual information, such as news articles, has tremendous potential for applications in global policy, strategic decision-making, and geopolitics. However, existing datasets available for this task are often limited in quality, hindering the progress of related research. In this paper, we introduce a novel dataset designed to address these limitations by leveraging the advanced reasoning capabilities of large-language models (LLMs). Our dataset features high-quality scoring labels generated through advanced prompt modeling and rigorously validated by domain experts in political science. We showcase the quality and utility of our dataset for real-world event prediction tasks, demonstrating its effectiveness through extensive experiments and analysis. Furthermore, we publicly release our dataset along with the full automation source code for data collection, labeling, and benchmarking, aiming to support and advance research in text-based event prediction.