Recent papers show LLMs achieve near-random accuracy in causal relation classification, raising questions about whether such failures arise from limited pretraining exposure or deeper representational gaps. We investigate this under uncertainty-based evaluation, testing whether pretraining exposure to causal examples improves causal understanding using >18K PubMed sentences—half from The Pile corpus, half post-2024—across seven models (Pythia-1.4B/7B/12B, GPT-J-6B, Dolly-7B/12B, Qwen-7B). We analyze model behavior through: (i) causal classification, where the model identifies causal relationships in text, and (ii) verbatim memorization probing, where we assess whether the model prefers previously seen causal statements over their paraphrases. Models perform four-way classification (direct/conditional/correlational/no-relationship) and select between originals and their generated paraphrases. Results show almost identical accuracy on seen/unseen sentences (p>0.05), no memorization bias (24.8% original selection), output distribution over the possible options almost flat — with entropic values near the maximum (1.35/1.39), confirming random guessing. Instruction-tuned models show severe miscalibration (Qwen: >95% confidence, 32.8% accuracy, ECE=0.49). Conditional relations induce highest entropy (+11% vs direct). These findings suggest that failures in causal understanding arise from the lack of structured causal representation, rather than insufficient exposure to causal examples during pretraining.

Lexical semantic change detection (also known as semantic shift tracing) is a task of identifying words that have changed their meaning over time. Unsupervised semantic shift tracing, focal point of SemEval2020, is particularly challenging. Given the unsupervised setup, in this work, we propose to identify clusters among different occurrences of each target word, considering these as representatives of different word meanings. As such, disagreements in obtained clusters naturally allow to quantify the level of semantic shift per each target word in four target languages. To leverage this idea, clustering is performed on contextualized (BERT-based) embeddings of word occurrences. The obtained results show that our approach performs well both measured separately (per language) and overall, where we surpass all provided SemEval baselines.