On the Role of Unobserved Sequences on Sample-based Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs

Lucie Kunitomo-Jacquin, Edison Marrese-Taylor, Ken Fukuda


Abstract
Quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is important for safety-critical applications because it helps spot incorrect answers, known as hallucinations. One major trend of uncertainty quantification methods is based on estimating the entropy of the distribution of the LLM’s potential output sequences. This estimation is based on a set of output sequences and associated probabilities obtained by querying the LLM several times. In this paper, we advocate and experimentally and show that the probability of unobserved sequences plays a crucial role, and we recommend future research to integrate it to enhance such LLM uncertainty quantification methods.
Anthology ID:
2025.uncertainlp-main.15
Volume:
Proceedings of the 2nd Workshop on Uncertainty-Aware NLP (UncertaiNLP 2025)
Month:
November
Year:
2025
Address:
Suzhou, China
Editor:
Noidea Noidea
Venues:
UncertaiNLP | WS
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Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
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Pages:
179–183
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URL:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-emnlp/2025.uncertainlp-main.15/
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Cite (ACL):
Lucie Kunitomo-Jacquin, Edison Marrese-Taylor, and Ken Fukuda. 2025. On the Role of Unobserved Sequences on Sample-based Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs. In Proceedings of the 2nd Workshop on Uncertainty-Aware NLP (UncertaiNLP 2025), pages 179–183, Suzhou, China. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
On the Role of Unobserved Sequences on Sample-based Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs (Kunitomo-Jacquin et al., UncertaiNLP 2025)
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https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-emnlp/2025.uncertainlp-main.15.pdf