@inproceedings{kruse-etal-2025-simple,
    title = "Simple Yet Effective: An Information-Theoretic Approach to Multi-{LLM} Uncertainty Quantification",
    author = "Kruse, Maya  and
      Afshar, Majid  and
      Khatwani, Saksham  and
      Mayampurath, Anoop  and
      Chen, Guanhua  and
      Gao, Yanjun",
    editor = "Christodoulopoulos, Christos  and
      Chakraborty, Tanmoy  and
      Rose, Carolyn  and
      Peng, Violet",
    booktitle = "Proceedings of the 2025 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing",
    month = nov,
    year = "2025",
    address = "Suzhou, China",
    publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
    url = "https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-emnlp/2025.emnlp-main.1551/",
    pages = "30481--30492",
    ISBN = "979-8-89176-332-6",
    abstract = "Large language models (LLMs) often behave inconsistently across inputs, indicating uncertainty and motivating the need for its quantification in high-stakes settings. Prior work on calibration and uncertainty quantification often focuses on individual models, overlooking the potential of model diversity. We hypothesize that LLMs make complementary predictions due to differences in training and the Zipfian nature of language, and that aggregating their outputs leads to more reliable uncertainty estimates. To leverage this, we propose MUSE (Multi-LLM Uncertainty via Subset Ensembles), a simple information-theoretic method that uses Jensen-Shannon Divergence to identify and aggregate well-calibrated subsets of LLMs. Experiments on binary prediction tasks demonstrate improved calibration and predictive performance compared to single-model and naive ensemble baselines. In addition, we explore using MUSE as guided signals with chain-of-thought distillation to fine-tune LLMs for calibration. MUSE is available at: https://github.com/LARK-NLP-Lab/MUSE."
}