@inproceedings{mei-etal-2026-reasoning,
    title = "Reasoning about Uncertainty: Do Reasoning Models Know When They Don{'}t Know?",
    author = "Mei, Zhiting  and
      Zhang, Christina  and
      Yin, Tenny  and
      Lidard, Justin  and
      Sho, Ola  and
      Majumdar, Anirudha",
    editor = "Demberg, Vera  and
      Inui, Kentaro  and
      Marquez, Llu{\'i}s",
    booktitle = "Findings of the {A}ssociation for {C}omputational {L}inguistics: {EACL} 2026",
    month = mar,
    year = "2026",
    address = "Rabat, Morocco",
    publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
    url = "https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-eacl/2026.findings-eacl.178/",
    pages = "3408--3458",
    ISBN = "979-8-89176-386-9",
    abstract = "Reasoning language models have set state-of-the-art (SOTA) records on many challenging benchmarks, enabled by multi-step reasoning induced by reinforcement learning. However, reasoning models are prone to generating confident, plausible responses that are incorrect (hallucinations). Knowing when and how much to trust these models is critical for safe deployment in real-world applications. To this end, we explore uncertainty quantification (UQ) of reasoning models in this work. We ask three fundamental questions: First, are reasoning models well-calibrated? Second, does deeper reasoning improve model calibration? Finally, inspired by humans' innate ability to double-check their thought processes to verify the validity of their answers and their confidence, we ask: can reasoning models improve their calibration by explicitly reasoning about their chain-of-thought traces? We introduce introspective uncertainty quantification (IUQ) to explore this direction. In extensive evaluations on SOTA reasoning models across a broad range of benchmarks focused on knowledge-intensive tasks, we find that reasoning models: (i) are typically overconfident, (ii) become even more overconfident with deeper reasoning, and (iii) can become better calibrated through introspection (e.g., o3-Mini and DeepSeek R1) but not uniformly (e.g., Claude 3.7 Sonnet becomes more poorly calibrated). We conclude with important research directions to design necessary UQ benchmarks and improve the calibration of reasoning models."
}