Forecasting conversational derailment is the task of predicting, as the conversation unfolds, whether it will eventually derail into personal attacks. Since forecasting models operate in an online fashion, they must decide whether to "trigger" an alert after each utterance—for example, to notify participants or a moderator that the conversation is at risk of derailing. Existing approaches make this decision solely based on the estimated likelihood of derailment given the preceding utterances, implicitly assuming that the conversation’s future trajectory is fixed. As a result, they ignore the possibility of future recovery and incur an unnecessarily high rate of false positives.In this work we propose a method for decoupling the decision to trigger from derailment likelihood estimation. Our approach is inspired by the first human baseline on this task, which shows that humans achieve dramatically lower false positive rates by selectively deferring their decision to trigger when they anticipate that tension is likely to subside. We operationalize this insight with a deferral mechanism that uses forward-looking simulations to assess whether a tense moment admits plausible paths to recovery. Incorporating this mechanism into a state-of-the-art forecasting model substantially reduces false positives without sacrificing forecasting accuracy. More broadly, this work highlights the value of treating decision-making as a first-class component of forecasting systems.

During a conversation, there can come certain moments where its outcome hangs in the balance. In these pivotal moments, how one responds can put the conversation on substantially different trajectories leading to significantly different outcomes. Systems that can detect when such moments arise could assist conversationalists in domains with highly consequential outcomes, such as mental health crisis counseling.In this work, we introduce an unsupervised computational method for detecting such pivotal moments as they happen. The intuition is that a moment is pivotal if our expectation of the conversation’s outcome varies widely depending on what might be said next. By applying our method to crisis counseling conversations, we first validate it by showing that it aligns with human perception—counselors take significantly longer to respond during moments detected by our method—and with the eventual conversational trajectory—which is more likely to change course at these times. We then use our framework to explore the relation between the counselor’s response during pivotal moments and the eventual outcome of the session.

Mental-health therapy involves a complex conversation flow in which patients and therapists continuously negotiate what should be talked about next. For example, therapists might try to shift the conversation’s direction to keep the therapeutic process on track and avoid stagnation, or patients might push the discussion towards issues they want to focus on.How do such patient and therapist redirections relate to the development and quality of their relationship? To answer this question, we introduce a probabilistic measure of the extent to which a certain utterance immediately redirects the flow of the conversation, accounting for both the intention and the actual realization of such a change. We apply this new measure to characterize the development of patient- therapist relationships over multiple sessions in a very large, widely-used online therapy platform. Our analysis reveals that (1) patient control of the conversation’s direction generally increases relative to that of the therapist as their relationship progresses; and (2) patients who have less control in the first few sessions are significantly more likely to eventually express dissatisfaction with their therapist and terminate the relationship.