This study investigates the efficacy of Large Language Models (LLMs) in causal discovery. Using newly available open-source LLMs, OLMo and BLOOM, which provide access to their pre-training corpora, we investigate how LLMs address causal discovery through three research questions. We examine: (i) the impact of memorization for accurate causal relation prediction, (ii) the influence of incorrect causal relations in pre-training data, and (iii) the contextual nuances that influence LLMs’ understanding of causal relations. Our findings indicate that while LLMs are effective in recognizing causal relations that occur frequently in pre-training data, their ability to generalize to new or rare causal relations is limited. Moreover, the presence of incorrect causal relations significantly undermines the confidence of LLMs in corresponding correct causal relations, and the contextual information critically affects the outcomes of LLMs to discern causal connections between random variables.

Causal discovery is fundamental to scientific research, yet traditional statistical algorithms face significant challenges, including expensive data collection, redundant computation for known relations, and unrealistic assumptions. While recent LLM-based methods excel at identifying commonly known causal relations, they fail to uncover novel relations. We introduce IRIS (Iterative Retrieval and Integrated System for Real-Time Causal Discovery), a novel framework that addresses these limitations. Starting with a set of initial variables, IRIS automatically collects relevant documents, extracts variables, and uncovers causal relations. Our hybrid causal discovery method combines statistical algorithms and LLM-based methods to discover known and novel causal relations. In addition to causal discovery on initial variables, the missing variable proposal component of IRIS identifies and incorporates missing variables to expand the causal graphs. Our approach enables real-time causal discovery from only a set of initial variables without requiring pre-existing datasets.

This paper tackles the task of emotion-cause pair extraction in the unsupervised domain adaptation setting.The problem is challenging as the distributions of the events causing emotions in target domains are dramatically different than those in source domains, despite the distributions of emotional expressions between domains are overlapped. Inspired by causal discovery,we propose a novel deep latent model in the variational autoencoder (VAE) framework, which not only captures the underlying latent structures of data but also utilizes the easily transferable knowledge of emotions as the bridge to link the distributions of events in different domains. To facilitate knowledge transfer across domains, we also propose a novel variational posterior regularization technique to disentangle the latent representations of emotions from those of events in order to mitigate the damage caused by the spurious correlations related to the events in source domains. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our model outperforms the strongest baseline by approximately 11.05% on a Chinese benchmark and 2.45% on a English benchmark in terms of weighted-average F1 score. We have released our source code and the generated dataset publicly at: https://github.com/tk1363704/CAREL-VAE.

Negotiation is a crucial ability in human communication. Recently, there has been a resurgent research interest in negotiation dialogue systems, whose goal is to create intelligent agents that can assist people in resolving conflicts or reaching agreements. Although there have been many explorations into negotiation dialogue systems, a systematic review of this task has not been performed to date. We aim to fill this gap by investigating recent studies in the field of negotiation dialogue systems, and covering benchmarks, evaluations and methodologies within the literature. We also discuss potential future directions, including multi-modal, multi-party and cross-cultural negotiation scenarios. Our goal is to provide the community with a systematic overview of negotiation dialogue systems and to inspire future research.