Large Language Model (LLM) routers dynamically select optimal models for given inputs. Existing approaches typically assume access to ground-truth labeled data, which is often unavailable in practice, especially when user request distributions are heterogeneous and unknown. We introduce Routing with Generated Data (RGD), a challenging setting in which routers are trained exclusively on generated queries and answers produced from high-level task descriptions by generator LLMs. We evaluate query-answer routers (using both queries and labels) and query-only routers across four diverse benchmarks and 12 models, finding that query-answer routers degrade faster than query-only routers as generator quality decreases. Our analysis reveals two crucial characteristics of effective generators: they must accurately respond to their own questions, and their questions must produce sufficient performance differentiation among the model pool. We then show how filtering for these characteristics can improve the quality of generated data. We further propose CASCAL, a novel query-only router that estimates model correctness through consensus voting and identifies model-specific skill niches via hierarchical clustering. CASCAL is substantially more robust to generator quality, outperforming the best query-answer router by 4.6% absolute accuracy when trained on weak generator data.

This work aims to understand how scaling improves language models, specifically in terms of training dynamics. We find that language models undergo loss deceleration early in training—an abrupt slowdown in the rate of loss improvement, resulting in piecewise linear behaviour of the loss curve in log-log space. Scaling up the model mitigates this transition by (1) decreasing the loss at which deceleration occurs, and (2) improving the log-log rate of loss improvement after deceleration. We attribute loss deceleration to a type of degenerate training dynamics we term zero-sum learning (ZSL). In ZSL, per-example gradients become systematically opposed, leading to destructive interference in per-example changes in loss. As a result, improving loss on one subset of examples degrades it on another, bottlenecking overall progress. Loss deceleration and ZSL provide new insights into the training dynamics underlying language model scaling laws, and could potentially be targeted directly to improve language models independent of scale. We make our code and artefacts available at: https://github.com/mirandrom/zsl