Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning (RL) dominate the post-training landscape for mathematical reasoning, yet differ fundamentally in their reliance on expert trajectories. To understand the optimal way to harness these trajectories for maximizing performance, we propose the Plasticity-Ceiling Framework. This framework empirically grounds the post-training landscape by decomposing the final performance ceiling into the foundational SFT performance and the subsequent RL plasticity (i.e., the maximum improvement via RL). Through extensive benchmarking, we establish the Sequential SFT-then-RL pipeline as the superior standard, overcoming the stability and premature convergence deficits inherent in synchronized approaches. Furthermore, we derive precise scaling guidelines: (1) Transitioning to RL at the Stable or Mild Overfitting Regime of SFT maximizes the final ceiling by securing a robust SFT foundation with substantial RL plasticity; (2) Refuting the “Less is More” hypothesis in SFT-then-RL scaling, we demonstrate that Data Scale determines the primary post-training potential, while Trajectory Difficulty acts as a performance multiplier; and (3) The Minimum Validation Loss of SFT serves as a reliable indicator for selecting the expert trajectories that maximize the ultimate performance ceiling. Our findings provide actionable guidelines for extracting maximum value from expert trajectories.

Based on Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs), event coreference resolution (ECR) systems have demonstrated outstanding performance in clustering coreferential events across documents. However, the state-of-the-art system exhibits an excessive reliance on the ‘triggers lexical matching’ spurious pattern in the input mention pair text. We formalize the decision-making process of the baseline ECR system using a Structural Causal Model (SCM), aiming to identify spurious and causal associations (i.e., rationales) within the ECR task. Leveraging the debiasing capability of counterfactual data augmentation, we develop a rationale-centric counterfactual data augmentation method with LLM-in-the-loop. This method is specialized for pairwise input in the ECR system, where we conduct direct interventions on triggers and context to mitigate the spurious association while emphasizing the causation. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on three popular cross-document ECR benchmarks and demonstrates robustness in out-of-domain scenarios.