Real-world financial analysis involves information across multiple languages and modalities, from reports and news to scanned filings and meeting recordings. Yet most existing evaluations of LLMs in finance remain text-only, monolingual, and largely saturated by current models. To bridge these gaps, we present MultiFinBen, the first expert-annotated multilingual (five languages) and multimodal (text, vision, audio) benchmark for evaluating LLMs in realistic financial contexts. MultiFinBen introduces two new task families: multilingual financial reasoning, which tests cross-lingual evidence integration from filings and news, and financial OCR, which extracts structured text from scanned documents containing tables and charts. Rather than aggregating all available datasets, we apply a structured, difficulty-aware selection based on advanced model performance, ensuring balanced challenge and removing redundant tasks. Evaluating 21 leading LLMs shows that even frontier multimodal models like GPT-4o achieve only 46.01% overall, stronger on vision and audio but dropping sharply in multilingual settings. These findings expose persistent limitations in multilingual, multimodal, and expert-level financial reasoning. All datasets, evaluation scripts, and leaderboards are publicly released.

We introduce RFC-Bench, a benchmark for evaluating large language models on financial misinformation under realistic news. RFC-Bench operates at the paragraph level and captures the contextual complexity of financial news where meaning emerges from dispersed cues. The benchmark defines two complementary tasks: reference-free misinformation detection and comparison-based diagnosis using paired original–perturbed inputs. Experiments reveal a consistent pattern: performance is substantially stronger when comparative context is available, while reference-free settings expose significant weaknesses, including unstable predictions and elevated invalid outputs. These results indicate that current models struggle to maintain coherent belief states without external grounding. By highlighting this gap, RFC-Bench provides a structured testbed for studying reference-free reasoning and advancing more reliable financial misinformation detection in real-world settings.

Prediction markets provide a unique setting where event-level time series are directly tied to natural-language descriptions, yet discovering robust lead–lag relationships remains challenging due to spurious statistical correlations. We propose a hybrid two-stage causal screener to address this challenge: (i) a statistical stage that uses Granger causality to identify candidate leader–follower pairs from market-implied probability time series, and (ii) an LLM-based semantic stage that re-ranks these candidates by assessing whether the proposed direction admits a plausible economic transmission mechanism based on event descriptions. Because causal ground truth is unobserved, we evaluate the ranked pairs using a fixed, signal-triggered trading protocol that maps relationship quality into realized profit and loss (PnL).On Kalshi Economics markets, our hybrid approach consistently outperforms the statistical baseline. Across rolling evaluations, the win rate increases from 51.4% to 54.5%. Crucially, the average magnitude of losing trades decreases substantially from 649 USD to 347 USD. This reduction is driven by the LLM’s ability to filter out statistically fragile links that are prone to large losses, rather than relying on rare gains. These improvements remain stable across different trading configurations, indicating that the gains are not driven by specific parameter choices. Overall, the results suggest that LLMs function as semantic risk managers on top of statistical discovery, prioritizing lead–lag relationships that generalize under changing market conditions.