Beyond Output Confidence: Epistemic-Aware Hallucination Detection with Answer-Level Signals

Jieran Li, Xiuyuan Hu, Yang Zhao, Dongbiao Sun, Hao Zhang


Abstract
Despite their strong generative capabilities, large language models frequently exhibit hallucinations, particularly due to outside-boundary confidence where incorrect assertions are produced with high statistical certainty. Existing approaches commonly use output probability as a proxy for truthfulness; however, this signal is confounded by epistemic uncertainty and cannot reliably distinguish genuine uncertainty from fabricated content. We argue that effective hallucination detection requires integrating surface-level confidence with signals that reflect the model’s underlying epistemic state. To this end, we propose Answer-level Intrinsic Cognition (AIC), a model-agnostic metric that captures epistemic boundary deviations by measuring answer-level stability across multiple stochastic forward passes. By coupling AIC with conventional output uncertainty, we derive a composite metric that disentangles within-boundary uncertainty from outside-boundary confidence. Across three public question-answering benchmarks and diverse model scales, the two-dimensional score consistently outperforms strong uncertainty-only baselines, with larger gains on adversarially constructed hallucination sets. The code is available at: https://github.com/HXYfighter/AIC-ACL2026.
Anthology ID:
2026.findings-acl.674
Volume:
Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2026
Month:
July
Year:
2026
Address:
San Diego, California, United States
Editors:
Maria Liakata, Viviane P. Moreira, Jiajun Zhang, David Jurgens
Venue:
Findings
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Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
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Pages:
13796–13806
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URL:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl/2026.findings-acl.674/
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Cite (ACL):
Jieran Li, Xiuyuan Hu, Yang Zhao, Dongbiao Sun, and Hao Zhang. 2026. Beyond Output Confidence: Epistemic-Aware Hallucination Detection with Answer-Level Signals. In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2026, pages 13796–13806, San Diego, California, United States. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
Beyond Output Confidence: Epistemic-Aware Hallucination Detection with Answer-Level Signals (Li et al., Findings 2026)
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https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl/2026.findings-acl.674.pdf
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