Balancing Classification and Calibration Performance in Decision-Making LLMs via Calibration Aware Reinforcement Learning

Duygu Nur Yaldiz, Evangelia Spiliopoulou, Zheng Qi, Siddharth Varia, Srikanth Doss, Nikolaos Pappas


Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in decision-making tasks, where not only accuracy but also reliable confidence estimates are essential. Well-calibrated confidence enables downstream systems to decide when to trust a model and when to defer to fallback mechanisms. In this work, we conduct a systematic study of calibration in two widely used fine-tuning paradigms: supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). We show that while RLVR improves task performance, it produces extremely overconfident models, whereas SFT yields substantially better calibration, even under distribution shift, though with smaller performance gains. Through targeted experiments, we diagnose RLVR’s failure, showing that decision tokens act as extraction steps of the decision in reasoning traces and do not carry confidence information, which prevents reinforcement learning from surfacing calibrated alternatives. Based on this insight, we propose a calibration-aware reinforcement learning formulation that directly adjusts decision-token probabilities. Our method preserves RLVR’s accuracy level while mitigating overconfidence, reducing ECE scores up to 9 points.
Anthology ID:
2026.findings-acl.610
Volume:
Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2026
Month:
July
Year:
2026
Address:
San Diego, California, United States
Editors:
Maria Liakata, Viviane P. Moreira, Jiajun Zhang, David Jurgens
Venue:
Findings
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Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
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Pages:
12537–12553
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https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl/2026.findings-acl.610/
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Cite (ACL):
Duygu Nur Yaldiz, Evangelia Spiliopoulou, Zheng Qi, Siddharth Varia, Srikanth Doss, and Nikolaos Pappas. 2026. Balancing Classification and Calibration Performance in Decision-Making LLMs via Calibration Aware Reinforcement Learning. In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2026, pages 12537–12553, San Diego, California, United States. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
Balancing Classification and Calibration Performance in Decision-Making LLMs via Calibration Aware Reinforcement Learning (Yaldiz et al., Findings 2026)
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