Talent or Luck? Evaluating Attribution Bias in Large Language Models

Chahat Raj, Mahika Banerjee, Jinhao Pan, Aylin Caliskan, Antonios Anastasopoulos, Ziwei Zhu


Abstract
When a student fails an exam, do we tend to blame their effort or the test’s difficulty? Attribution, defined as how reasons are assigned to event outcomes, shapes perceptions, reinforces stereotypes, and influences decisions. Attribution Theory explains how people attribute causes to internal factors (effort, ability) or external ones (task difficulty, luck). LLMs’ attribution of event outcomes based on demographics carries important fairness implications. Most works exploring social biases in LLMs focus on surface-level associations or isolated stereotypes. This work proposes a cognitively grounded bias evaluation framework to identify how models’ reasoning disparities shape demographic bias across three contexts: single-actor, actor–actor, and actor–observer, capturing comparative and perspective-driven biases overlooked in prior work. Introducing a 140k-prompt benchmark covering ten scenarios and four social dimensions, our analyses reveal attribution asymmetries across identities that vary in multi-actor and observer settings, suggesting that other identities influence bias. This work underscores the need for cognitively grounded bias evaluation and informs future debiasing efforts through the proposed framework.
Anthology ID:
2026.findings-acl.534
Volume:
Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2026
Month:
July
Year:
2026
Address:
San Diego, California, United States
Editors:
Maria Liakata, Viviane P. Moreira, Jiajun Zhang, David Jurgens
Venue:
Findings
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Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
10982–11014
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URL:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl/2026.findings-acl.534/
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Cite (ACL):
Chahat Raj, Mahika Banerjee, Jinhao Pan, Aylin Caliskan, Antonios Anastasopoulos, and Ziwei Zhu. 2026. Talent or Luck? Evaluating Attribution Bias in Large Language Models. In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2026, pages 10982–11014, San Diego, California, United States. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
Talent or Luck? Evaluating Attribution Bias in Large Language Models (Raj et al., Findings 2026)
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https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl/2026.findings-acl.534.pdf
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