Distribution Shift Alignment Helps LLMs Simulate Survey Response Distributions

Ji Huang, Mengfei LI, Shuai Shao


Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) offer a promising way to simulate human survey responses, potentially reducing the cost of large-scale data collection. However, existing zero-shot methods suffer from prompt sensitivity and low accuracy, while conventional fine-tuning approaches mostly fit the training set distributions and struggle to produce results more accurate than the training set itself, which deviates from the original goal of using LLMs to simulate survey responses. Building on this observation, we introduce Distribution Shift Alignment (DSA), a two-stage fine-tuning method that aligns both the output distributions and the distribution shifts across different backgrounds. By learning how these distributions change rather than fitting training data, DSA can provide results substantially closer to the true distribution than the training data. Empirically, DSA consistently outperforms other methods on five public survey datasets. We further conduct a comprehensive comparison covering accuracy, robustness, and data savings. DSA reduces the required real data by 53.48-69.12%, demonstrating its effectiveness and efficiency in survey simulation.
Anthology ID:
2026.findings-acl.457
Volume:
Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2026
Month:
July
Year:
2026
Address:
San Diego, California, United States
Editors:
Maria Liakata, Viviane P. Moreira, Jiajun Zhang, David Jurgens
Venue:
Findings
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Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
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Pages:
9395–9409
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URL:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl/2026.findings-acl.457/
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Cite (ACL):
Ji Huang, Mengfei LI, and Shuai Shao. 2026. Distribution Shift Alignment Helps LLMs Simulate Survey Response Distributions. In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2026, pages 9395–9409, San Diego, California, United States. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
Distribution Shift Alignment Helps LLMs Simulate Survey Response Distributions (Huang et al., Findings 2026)
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https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl/2026.findings-acl.457.pdf
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