@inproceedings{owusu-feldman-2026-anchoring,
    title = "Anchoring Depends on Confidence and Post-Training in Language Models",
    author = "Owusu, Hillary N.  and
      Feldman, Naomi H.",
    editor = "Liakata, Maria  and
      Moreira, Viviane P.  and
      Zhang, Jiajun  and
      Jurgens, David",
    booktitle = "Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the {A}ssociation for {C}omputational {L}inguistics (Volume 2: Short Papers)",
    month = jul,
    year = "2026",
    address = "San Diego, California, United States",
    publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
    url = "https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl/2026.acl-short.16/",
    pages = "174--180",
    ISBN = "979-8-89176-391-3",
    abstract = "Anchoring bias causes large language models (LLMs) to shift quantitative judgments in response to irrelevant numerical primes. We analyze this bias as a function of model confidence and accuracy in base, instruction-tuned, and distilled variants of Llama and Qwen models. We find that anchoring susceptibility is negatively correlated with model confidence without regard to accuracy: confidently incorrect models resist anchoring as effectively as accurate ones, provided their internal priors are sufficiently strong. We further show that post-training impacts the strength of this relationship, and that models are more susceptible to high anchors than to low anchors. Our findings suggest anchoring resistance is a structural property of distributional concentration (certainty) rather than knowledge correctness (factual accuracy), with implications for deploying LLMs in numerical reasoning tasks."
}