@inproceedings{li-etal-2026-attention,
    title = "Is the Attention Matrix Really the Key to Self-Attention in Multivariate Long-Term Time Series Forecasting?",
    author = "Li, Xinyu  and
      Chen, Kexi  and
      Shen, Jiajie  and
      Zheng, Ying  and
      Lu, Hong  and
      Zhao, Jin  and
      Wang, Xin",
    editor = "Liakata, Maria  and
      Moreira, Viviane P.  and
      Zhang, Jiajun  and
      Jurgens, David",
    booktitle = "Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the {A}ssociation for {C}omputational {L}inguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)",
    month = jul,
    year = "2026",
    address = "San Diego, California, United States",
    publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
    url = "https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl/2026.acl-long.853/",
    pages = "18757--18773",
    ISBN = "979-8-89176-390-6",
    abstract = "In multivariate long-term time series forecasting, it is widely believed that the effectiveness of self-attention arises from its attention matrix. We challenge this assumption with a counterintuitive finding: our experiments, conducted on three classic and three latest Transformer models, show that dot-product attention can be replaced by element-wise operations without token interaction, such as the addition and Hadamard product, while maintaining or even improving accuracy. This leads to our central hypothesis: the effectiveness of self-attention in this task stems not from the dynamic attention matrix, but from the multi-branch feature extraction inherent in the parallel projections to Query, Key, and Value matrices and their fusion. To validate this, we construct a simple multi-branch MLP that isolates the `multi-branch mapping with element-wise operation' structure from the Transformer and show that it achieves competitive performance. Our results indicate that the source of performance in self-attention has been misattributed, suggesting that the true benefit lies in the architectural principle of multi-branch mapping and fusion, not in the attention matrix."
}