MedEinst: Benchmarking the Einstellung Effect in Medical LLMs through Counterfactual Differential Diagnosis

Wenting Chen, Guolin Huang, Wenxuan Wang, Zhongrui Zhu


Abstract
Despite achieving high accuracy on medical benchmarks, LLMs exhibit the Einstellung Effect in clinical diagnosis—relying on statistical shortcuts rather than patient-specific evidence, causing misdiagnosis in atypical cases. Existing benchmarks fail to detect this critical failure mode. We introduce MedEinst, a counterfactual benchmark with 5,383 paired clinical cases across 49 diseases. Each pair contains a control case and a "trap" case with altered discriminative evidence that flips the diagnosis. We measure susceptibility via Bias Trap Rate—probability of misdiagnosing traps despite correctly diagnosing controls. Evaluation shows frontier models achieve high baseline accuracy but severe bias trap rates. Thus, we propose ECR-Agent, aligning LLM reasoning with Evidence-Based Medicine via two components: (1) Dynamic Causal Inference (DCI) performs structured reasoning through dual-pathway perception, dynamic causal graph reasoning across three levels (association, intervention, counterfactual), and evidence audit for final diagnosis; (2) Critic-Driven Graph Memory Evolution (CGME) iteratively refines the system by storing validated reasoning paths in an exemplar base and consolidating disease-specific knowledge into evolving illness graphs. Source code is to be released.
Anthology ID:
2026.acl-long.1847
Volume:
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)
Month:
July
Year:
2026
Address:
San Diego, California, United States
Editors:
Maria Liakata, Viviane P. Moreira, Jiajun Zhang, David Jurgens
Venue:
ACL
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Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
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Pages:
39778–39798
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URL:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl/2026.acl-long.1847/
DOI:
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Cite (ACL):
Wenting Chen, Guolin Huang, Wenxuan Wang, and Zhongrui Zhu. 2026. MedEinst: Benchmarking the Einstellung Effect in Medical LLMs through Counterfactual Differential Diagnosis. In Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers), pages 39778–39798, San Diego, California, United States. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
MedEinst: Benchmarking the Einstellung Effect in Medical LLMs through Counterfactual Differential Diagnosis (Chen et al., ACL 2026)
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https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl/2026.acl-long.1847.pdf
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