@inproceedings{utting-etal-2026-surprisal,
    title = "Surprisal Minimisation over Goal-directed Alternatives Predicts Production Choice in Dialogue",
    author = "Utting, Thomas P.  and
      Giulianelli, Mario  and
      Sinclair, Arabella",
    editor = "Liakata, Maria  and
      Moreira, Viviane P.  and
      Zhang, Jiajun  and
      Jurgens, David",
    booktitle = "Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the {A}ssociation for {C}omputational {L}inguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)",
    month = jul,
    year = "2026",
    address = "San Diego, California, United States",
    publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
    url = "https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl/2026.acl-long.1814/",
    pages = "39090--39109",
    ISBN = "979-8-89176-390-6",
    abstract = "We model utterance production as probabilistic cost-sensitive choice over contextual alternatives, using information-theoretic notions of cost. We distinguish between goal-directed alternatives that realise a fixed communicative intent and goal-agnostic alternatives defined only by contextual plausibility, allowing us to derive speaker- and listener-oriented interpretations of different cost measures. We present a procedure to generate both types of alternative sets using language models. Analysing production choices in open-ended dialogue under both deterministic and noisy cost minimisation, we find that surprisal minimisation relative to goal-directed alternatives provides the strongest explanation of production choices. Uniformity-based costs show weaker overall predictive power, but their influence increases markedly when evaluated relative to goal-agnostic alternatives, consistent with listener-oriented accounts. More broadly, our study suggests that alternative-conditioned optimisation with LM-generated alternatives provides a principled framework for studying speaker and listener pressures in naturalistic language production."
}