@inproceedings{nair-oh-2026-clozing,
    title = "Clozing the Gap: Exploring Why Language Model Surprisal Outperforms Cloze Surprisal",
    author = "Nair, Sathvik  and
      Oh, Byung-Doh",
    editor = "Liakata, Maria  and
      Moreira, Viviane P.  and
      Zhang, Jiajun  and
      Jurgens, David",
    booktitle = "Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the {A}ssociation for {C}omputational {L}inguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)",
    month = jul,
    year = "2026",
    address = "San Diego, California, United States",
    publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
    url = "https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl/2026.acl-long.1534/",
    pages = "33193--33210",
    ISBN = "979-8-89176-390-6",
    abstract = "How predictable a word is can be generally quantified in two ways: using human responses to the cloze task or using probabilities from language models (LMs). When used as predictors of processing effort, LM probabilities outperform probabilities derived from cloze data. However, it is important to establish that LM probabilities do so for the right reasons, since different predictors can lead to different scientific conclusions about the role of prediction in language comprehension. We present evidence for three hypotheses about the apparent advantage of LM probabilities: not suffering from low resolution, distinguishing semantically similar words, and accurately assigning probabilities to low-frequency words. These results call for efforts to improve the resolution of cloze studies, coupled with experiments on whether human-like prediction is also as sensitive to the fine-grained distinctions made by LM probabilities."
}