GrACE: A Generative Approach to Better Confidence Elicitation and Efficient Test-Time Scaling in Large Language Models

Zhaohan Zhang, Ziquan Liu, Ioannis Patras


Abstract
Assessing the reliability of Large Language Models (LLMs) by confidence elicitation is a prominent approach to AI safety in high-stakes applications, such as healthcare and finance. Existing methods either require expensive computational overhead or suffer from poor calibration, making them impractical and unreliable for real-world deployment. In this work, we propose GrACE, a Generative Approach to Confidence Elicitation that enables scalable and reliable confidence elicitation for LLMs. GrACE adopts a novel mechanism in which the model expresses confidence by the similarity between the last hidden state and the embedding of a special token appended to the vocabulary, in real-time. We fine-tune the model for calibrating the confidence with targets associated with accuracy. Extensive experiments show that the confidence produced by GrACE achieves the best discriminative capacity and calibration on open-ended generation tasks without resorting to additional sampling or an auxiliary model. Moreover, we propose two confidence-based strategies for test-time scaling with GrACE, which not only improve the accuracy of the final decision but also significantly reduce the number of required samples, highlighting its potential as a practical solution for deploying LLMs with reliable, on-the-fly confidence estimation. The code is available at: https://github.com/petezone/Grace.
Anthology ID:
2026.acl-long.1069
Volume:
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)
Month:
July
Year:
2026
Address:
San Diego, California, United States
Editors:
Maria Liakata, Viviane P. Moreira, Jiajun Zhang, David Jurgens
Venue:
ACL
SIG:
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
23333–23350
Language:
URL:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl/2026.acl-long.1069/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Zhaohan Zhang, Ziquan Liu, and Ioannis Patras. 2026. GrACE: A Generative Approach to Better Confidence Elicitation and Efficient Test-Time Scaling in Large Language Models. In Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers), pages 23333–23350, San Diego, California, United States. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
GrACE: A Generative Approach to Better Confidence Elicitation and Efficient Test-Time Scaling in Large Language Models (Zhang et al., ACL 2026)
Copy Citation:
PDF:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl/2026.acl-long.1069.pdf
Checklist:
 2026.acl-long.1069.checklist.pdf