@inproceedings{kim-kim-2026-conservative,
    title = "The Conservative {AI}: Diagnosing Hold Bias and Reliability Limits in Persona-Based Monetary Policy Simulation",
    author = "Kim, Giyong  and
      Kim, Sojung",
    editor = "Chang, Kai-Wei  and
      Mehrabi, Ninareh  and
      Krishna, Satyapriya  and
      Das, Anubrata  and
      Dhamala, Jwala  and
      Cao, Yang Trista  and
      Kumarage, Tharindu  and
      Ramakrishna, Anil  and
      Christodoulopoulos, Christos  and
      Wan, Yixin  and
      Galystan, Aram  and
      Kumar, Anoop  and
      Gupta, Rahul",
    booktitle = "Proceedings of the 6th Workshop on Trustworthy {NLP} ({T}rust{NLP} 2026)",
    month = jul,
    year = "2026",
    address = "San Diego, California",
    publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
    url = "https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl-workshops/2026.trustnlp-main.52/",
    pages = "663--677",
    ISBN = "979-8-89176-418-7",
    abstract = "We examine whether large language models (LLMs) can reliably simulate historical FOMC policy decisions and whether persona-based agentic deliberation improves performance. Using strictly time-consistent vintage economic information, we evaluate multiple state-of-the-art LLMs on a three-way Hike/Hold/Cut classification task in both single-agent and multi-agent settings. Single-LLM baselines achieve nontrivial accuracy and track broad policy regime shifts, establishing a simple but strong benchmark. However, we identify a systematic behavioral asymmetry that we term \textit{Hold bias}: models disproportionately favor Hold decisions and remain reluctant to predict Cut outcomes even during easing cycles. This conservatism is especially costly around regime turning points, where reliable adaptation matters most. We further find that standard agentic workflows, including debate and consensus-style aggregation, do not mitigate this problem and often amplify caution rather than improve accuracy. Overall, our results show that plausible deliberation is not sufficient for trustworthy decision support. Progress will require agentic systems explicitly designed to diagnose and correct structural bias, rather than merely reproducing surface-level committee interaction."
}