ModusPonens at SemEval-2026 Task 11: Breaking the Plausibility Trap in LLMs via Conflict-Aware Ensembling

Soumyajit Roy, Manav Malhotra


Abstract
Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle to disentangle formal logical validity from real-world plausibility, a phenomenon known as the "belief bias". This paper describes our submission to SemEval-2026 Task 11. We frame the task as a calibration problem between "System 1" (heuristic) and "System 2" (logical) thinking. Our experiments reveal that standard neuro-symbolic interventions, such as Structural Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and Nonsense Augmentation, degrade performance in low-resource regimes due to an "abstraction penalty". Instead, we propose a Conflict-Aware Logit Ensemble. We fine-tune two variations of Qwen-2.5-14B: a standard "Believer" model and a bias-hardened "Skeptic" model trained on oversampled conflict data. By ensembling their logits via soft-voting, we achieve a Pareto-optimal balance, reducing the Total Content Effect (TCE) to 3.21 while maintaining an overall accuracy of 94.27%, resulting in a Combined Score of 39.09.
Anthology ID:
2026.semeval-1.10
Volume:
Proceedings of the 20th International Workshop on Semantic Evaluation (2026)
Month:
July
Year:
2026
Address:
San Diego, California, USA
Editors:
Ekaterina Kochmar, Debanjan Ghosh, Kai North, Mamoru Komachi
Venues:
SemEval | WS
SIG:
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
65–71
Language:
URL:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl-workshops/2026.semeval-1.10/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Soumyajit Roy and Manav Malhotra. 2026. ModusPonens at SemEval-2026 Task 11: Breaking the Plausibility Trap in LLMs via Conflict-Aware Ensembling. In Proceedings of the 20th International Workshop on Semantic Evaluation (2026), pages 65–71, San Diego, California, USA. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
ModusPonens at SemEval-2026 Task 11: Breaking the Plausibility Trap in LLMs via Conflict-Aware Ensembling (Roy & Malhotra, SemEval 2026)
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PDF:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl-workshops/2026.semeval-1.10.pdf