@inproceedings{keramati-etal-2026-early,
    title = "Early-Token Confidence Predicts Reasoning Quality in Multi-Agent {LLM} Debate",
    author = "Keramati, Ali  and
      Cheok, Justin  and
      Horne, Jacob  and
      Warschauer, Mark",
    editor = "Mille, Simon  and
      Gehrmann, Sebastian  and
      Schmidtov{\'a}, Patr{\'i}cia  and
      Du{\v{s}}ek, Ond{\v{r}}ej  and
      Fadaee, Marzieh  and
      Lo, Kyle  and
      Santus, Enrico  and
      Stanovsky, Gabriel",
    booktitle = "Proceedings of the Fifth Workshop on Generation, Evaluation and Metrics ({GEM})",
    month = jul,
    year = "2026",
    address = "San Diego, California, USA",
    publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
    url = "https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl-workshops/2026.gem-main.60/",
    pages = "653--667",
    ISBN = "979-8-89176-423-1",
    abstract = "Evaluating reasoning quality in multi-agent LLM systems is challenging, especially for open-ended tasks without reference answers. We investigate whether intrinsic confidence signals, token-level log-probabilities from decoding, can predict reasoning quality as assessed by LLM-as-judge evaluation. Using a debate-based essay scoring framework, we compare confidence proxies against rubric-based judge scores across two ASAP essay sets. We find that early-token confidence, particularly within the first few generated tokens, is consistently the strongest predictor of reasoning quality, outperforming full-sequence statistics. Analysis of log-probability trajectories shows that the opening phase of generation is the most heterogeneous and therefore most informative. We also observe a systematic asymmetry between agent roles, with stronger alignment between confidence and quality for supportive reasoning than for adversarial critique. These results suggest that early decoding dynamics provide a lightweight and effective signal for estimating reasoning reliability in multi-agent LLM systems."
}