@inproceedings{harshavardhan-2026-self,
    title = "Self-Anchoring Calibration Drift in Large Language Models: How Multi-Turn Conversations Reshape Model Confidence",
    author = "Harshavardhan",
    editor = "Mille, Simon  and
      Gehrmann, Sebastian  and
      Schmidtov{\'a}, Patr{\'i}cia  and
      Du{\v{s}}ek, Ond{\v{r}}ej  and
      Fadaee, Marzieh  and
      Lo, Kyle  and
      Santus, Enrico  and
      Stanovsky, Gabriel",
    booktitle = "Proceedings of the Fifth Workshop on Generation, Evaluation and Metrics ({GEM})",
    month = jul,
    year = "2026",
    address = "San Diego, California, USA",
    publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
    url = "https://preview.aclanthology.org/ingest-acl-workshops/2026.gem-main.4/",
    pages = "34--40",
    ISBN = "979-8-89176-423-1",
    abstract = "Self-Anchoring Calibration Drift (SACD), a tendency for large language models (LLMs) to show systematic changes in expressed confidence when building iteratively on their own prior outputs across multi-turn conversations. Through a controlled three-condition study comparing Claude Sonnet 4.6, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and GPT-5.2 across factual, technical, and open-ended domains, we find that SACD is real but multiform: models exhibit distinct self-anchoring signatures ranging from active confidence suppression to calibration improvement suppression, with effects concentrated in open-ended domains. These findings challenge the adequacy of single-turn calibration evaluation for characterizing LLM reliability in realistic multi-turn deployment contexts. Code and data are available at https://github.com/hvardhan878/calibration-drift"
}