@inproceedings{schoch-ji-2025-monte,
    title = "{M}onte {C}arlo Sampling for Analyzing In-Context Examples",
    author = "Schoch, Stephanie  and
      Ji, Yangfeng",
    editor = "Drozd, Aleksandr  and
      Sedoc, Jo{\~a}o  and
      Tafreshi, Shabnam  and
      Akula, Arjun  and
      Shu, Raphael",
    booktitle = "The Sixth Workshop on Insights from Negative Results in NLP",
    month = may,
    year = "2025",
    address = "Albuquerque, New Mexico",
    publisher = "Association for Computational Linguistics",
    url = "https://preview.aclanthology.org/fix-sig-urls/2025.insights-1.7/",
    pages = "63--78",
    ISBN = "979-8-89176-240-4",
    abstract = "Prior works have shown that in-context learning is brittle to presentation factors such as the order, number, and choice of selected examples. However, ablation-based guidance on selecting the number of examples may ignore the interplay between different presentation factors. In this work we develop a Monte Carlo sampling-based method to study the impact of number of examples while explicitly accounting for effects from order and selected examples. We find that previous guidance on how many in-context examples to select does not always generalize across different sets of selected examples and orderings, and whether one-shot settings outperform zero-shot settings is highly dependent on the selected example. Additionally, inspired by data valuation, we apply our sampling method to in-context example selection to select examples that perform well across different orderings. We find a negative result, that while performance is robust to ordering and number of examples, there is an unexpected performance degradation compared to random sampling."
}