Large language models (LLMs) struggle with ex-ante reasoning—making inferences or predictions without access to future information. Even under explicit temporal cutoffs, they often rely on internalized post-cutoff knowledge. To systematically evaluate this issue, we introduce a benchmark that assesses LLMs’ ex-ante inference ability across four tasks: stock prediction, question answering, Wikipedia event generation, and scientific publication generation. We quantify temporal leakage using a leakage rate metric, which measures models’ reliance on future information beyond cutoff timestamps, and a quality measure that evaluates task performance. Experimental results show that LLMs frequently violate temporal constraints across tasks, revealing persistent challenges in ex-ante reasoning. Our benchmark serves as a rigorous testbed for studying temporal reasoning in time-sensitive contexts and provides complete datasets, results, and evaluation resources to support future research on improving temporal consistency in modern LLMs.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has become essential for eliciting complex reasoning capabilities in Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the substantial memory overhead of storing Key-Value (KV) caches during long-horizon rollouts acts as a critical bottleneck, often prohibiting efficient training on limited hardware. While existing KV compression techniques offer a remedy for inference, directly applying them to RL training induces a severe policy mismatch, leading to catastrophic performance collapse. To address this, we introduce Sparse-RL, which empowers stable RL training under sparse rollouts. We show that instability arises from a fundamental policy mismatch among the dense old policy, the sparse sampler policy, and the learner policy. To mitigate this issue, Sparse-RL incorporates Sparsity-Aware Rejection Sampling and Importance-based Reweighting to correct the off-policy bias introduced by compression-induced information loss. Experimental results show that Sparse-RL reduces rollout overhead compared to dense baselines while preserving the performance. Furthermore, Sparse-RL inherently implements sparsity-aware training, significantly enhancing model robustness during sparse inference deployment.

We introduce Agentic Economic Modeling (AEM), a framework that aligns synthetic LLM choices with small-sample human evidence for reliable econometric inference. AEM first generates task-conditioned synthetic choices via LLMs, then learns a bias-correction mapping from task features and raw LLM choices to human-aligned choices, upon which standard econometric estimators perform inference to recover demand elasticities and treatment effects. We validate AEM in two experiments. In a large scale conjoint study with millions of observations, using only 10% of the original data to fit the correction model lowers the error of the demand-parameter estimates, while uncorrected LLM choices even increase the errors. In a regional field experiment, a mixture model calibrated on 10% of geographic regions estimates an out-of-domain treatment effect of -65±10 bps, closely matching the full human experiment (-60±8 bps). Under time-wise extrapolation, training with only day-one human data yields -24 bps (95% CI: [-26, -22], p<1e-5), improving over the human-only day-one baseline (-17 bps, 95% CI: [-43, +9], p=0.2049). These results demonstrate AEM’s potential to improve RCT efficiency and establish a foundation method for LLM-based counterfactual generation.

We introduce TableLLM, a robust large language model (LLM) with 8 billion parameters, purpose-built for proficiently handling tabular data manipulation tasks, whether they are embedded within documents or spreadsheets, catering to real-world office scenarios. We propose a distant supervision method for training, which comprises a reasoning process extension strategy, aiding in training LLMs to understand reasoning patterns more effectively as well as a cross-way validation strategy, ensuring the quality of the automatically generated data. To evaluate the performance of TableLLM, we have crafted benchmarks tailored to address both document and spreadsheet formats as well as constructed a well-organized evaluation pipeline capable of handling both scenarios. Thorough evaluations underscore the advantages of TableLLM when compared to various existing general-purpose and tabular data-focused LLMs. We have publicly released the model checkpoint, source code, benchmarks, and a web application for user interaction on this anonymized repository.

Current inference scaling methods, such as Self-consistency and Best-of-N, have proven effective in improving the accuracy of LLMs on complex reasoning tasks. However, these methods rely heavily on the quality of candidate responses and are unable to produce correct answers when all candidates are incorrect. In this paper, we propose a novel inference scaling strategy, CoT-based Synthesizer, which leverages CoT reasoning to synthesize superior answers by analyzing complementary information from multiple candidate responses, even when all candidates are flawed. To support a lightweight and cost-effective implementation, we introduce an automated data generation pipeline that creates diverse training data. This enables smaller LLMs trained on this data to improve the inference accuracy of larger models, including API-based LLMs. Experimental results across four benchmark datasets with seven policy models demonstrate that our method significantly enhances performance, with gains of 11.8% for Llama3-8B and 10.3% for GPT-4o on the MATH dataset. The corresponding training data and code are publicly available on the [repository](https://github.com/RUCKBReasoning/CoT-based-Synthesizer).

In this paper, we examine the collaborative dynamics between humansand language models (LMs), where the interactions typically involveLMs proposing text segments and humans editing or responding to theseproposals. Productive engagement with LMs in such scenarios necessitates that humans discern effective text-based interaction strategies, such as editing and response styles, from historical human-LM interactions. This objective is inherently causal, driven by the counterfactual ‘what-if’ question: how would the outcome of collaboration change if humans employed a different text editing/refinement strategy? A key challenge in answering this causal inference question is formulating an appropriate causal estimand: the conventional average treatment effect (ATE) estimand is inapplicable to text-based treatments due to their high dimensionality. To address this concern, we introduce a new causal estimand– *Incremental Stylistic Effect (ISE)*, which characterizes the average impact of infinitesimally shifting a text towards a specific style, such as increasing formality. We establish the conditions for the non-parametric identification of ISE. Building on this, we develop *CausalCollab*, an algorithm designed to estimate the ISE of various interaction strategies in dynamic human-LM collaborations. Our empirical investigations across three distinct human-LM collaboration scenarios reveal that *CausalCollab* effectively reduces confounding and significantly improves counterfactual estimation over a set of competitive baselines.

Reddit is home to a broad spectrum of political activity, and users signal their political affiliations in multiple ways—from self-declarations to community participation. Frequently, computational studies have treated political users as a single bloc, both in developing models to infer political leaning and in studying political behavior. Here, we test this assumption of political users and show that commonly-used political-inference models do not generalize, indicating heterogeneous types of political users. The models remain imprecise at best for most users, regardless of which sources of data or methods are used. Across a 14-year longitudinal analysis, we demonstrate that the choice in definition of a political user has significant implications for behavioral analysis. Controlling for multiple factors, political users are more toxic on the platform and inter-party interactions are even more toxic—but not all political users behave this way. Last, we identify a subset of political users who repeatedly flip affiliations, showing that these users are the most controversial of all, acting as provocateurs by more frequently bringing up politics, and are more likely to be banned, suspended, or deleted.

Document-level text simplification often deletes some sentences besides performing lexical, grammatical or structural simplification to reduce text complexity. In this work, we focus on sentence deletions for text simplification and use a news genre-specific functional discourse structure, which categorizes sentences based on their contents and their function roles in telling a news story, for predicting sentence deletion. We incorporate sentence categories into a neural net model in two ways for predicting sentence deletions, either as additional features or by jointly predicting sentence deletions and sentence categories. Experimental results using human-annotated data show that incorporating the functional structure improves the recall of sentence deletion prediction by 6.5% and 10.7% respectively using the two methods, and improves the overall F1-score by 3.6% and 4.3% respectively.