On the Proper Treatment of Units in Surprisal Theory

Samuel Kiegeland, Vésteinn Snæbjarnarson, Tim Vieira, Ryan Cotterell


Abstract
Surprisal theory links human processing effort to the predictability of an upcoming linguistic unit, but empirical work often leaves the notion of a unit underspecified. In practice, experimental stimuli are segmented into linguistically motivated units (e.g., words), while pretrained language models assign probability mass to a fixed token alphabet that typically does not align with those units. As a result, surprisal-based predictors depend implicitly on ad hoc procedures that conflate two distinct modeling choices: the definition of the unit of analysis and the choice of regions of interest over which predictions are evaluated. In this paper, we disentangle these choices and give a unified framework for reasoning about surprisal over arbitrary unit inventories. We argue that surprisal-based analyses should make these choices explicit and treat tokenization as an implementation detail rather than a scientific primitive.
Anthology ID:
2026.acl-long.1485
Volume:
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)
Month:
July
Year:
2026
Address:
San Diego, California, United States
Editors:
Maria Liakata, Viviane P. Moreira, Jiajun Zhang, David Jurgens
Venue:
ACL
SIG:
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
32202–32224
Language:
URL:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/check-for-anonymous-pdfs/2026.acl-long.1485/
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Samuel Kiegeland, Vésteinn Snæbjarnarson, Tim Vieira, and Ryan Cotterell. 2026. On the Proper Treatment of Units in Surprisal Theory. In Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers), pages 32202–32224, San Diego, California, United States. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
On the Proper Treatment of Units in Surprisal Theory (Kiegeland et al., ACL 2026)
Copy Citation:
PDF:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/check-for-anonymous-pdfs/2026.acl-long.1485.pdf
Checklist:
 2026.acl-long.1485.checklist.pdf