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2011 AFC preview and predictions: A fanā??s take
2011 AFC preview and predictions: A fanā??s take
After a lengthy offseason lockout and a shortened training camp, the NFL season is set to kick off on September 8 th with fans of all 32 teams hoping for playoff contention and a select few with sights set on hoisting the Lombardi trophy. As a New England Patriots fan I view the team as one with a strong chance of securing a high playoff seed and contending for a fourth Super Bowl title.
Let's take a look at the AFC and determine what teams will likely be competing in January with a predicted regular season record.
AFC East
New England Patriots: 12-4
New York Jets : 10-6
Miami Dolphins : 7-9
Buffalo Bills 4-12
The Patriots remain the class of the AFC East and one of the favorites to win the conference. Head Coach Bill Belichick will bring back a potent offense led by last year's NFL unanimous MVP Tom Brady (notes) and a bevy of receivers to throw to. A revamped defensive line designed to give the opposing offenses a variety of different looks and many options for Belichick to explore. Questionable secondary remains the Patriot defenses' Achilles heel but hope of an improved pass rush may compensate by limiting the quarterback's time to throw. While it will be difficult to repeat last season's 14-2 record, the main objective remains; to be the last team standing.
The New York Jets have proven the past two seasons that they are a playoff tested group with consecutive appearances in the AFC title game. While the team is built for the playoffs, their regular season success will be based on how quarterback Mark Sanchez (notes) progresses as a passer. Where questions remain on the offensive side of the ball, the Jets lack little on defense. New York will rely on that strength to win games when the offense falters. As winners of two of the three match-ups in 2010 against the Patriots, the Jets are poised to contend for a conference championship again in 2011.
The Dolphins bring a conservative passing game and a solid offensive line to provide ample time for Chad Henne (notes) to throw. Looking to replace departed running backs Ricky Williams (notes) and Ronnie Brown (notes) , the Dolphins will look for new acquisition Reggie Bush (notes) to provide versatility out of the backfield and perform as a marquee starter in Miami. Without a mulch-faceted backfield threat, the team will count on Henne to play the role of play-maker; stretching the field and looking for primary target Brandon Marshall (notes) . The defense is anchored by Cameron Wake (notes) who led a solid linebacker corps with 14 sacks. Miami will need continued performance from the linebackers and improved secondary play in order to stay in playoff contention.
The Bills will continue to struggle to gain any ground in the AFC East thanks to the top-heavy talent in the division. The offense will rely on backfield combo C.J. Spiller (notes) and Fred Jackson (notes) to take the pressure off quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (notes) from having to make plays. The defense will benefit greatly from a return to form of former Pro Bowl linebacker Shawne Merriman (notes) but it will not be enough to get the Bills to the playoffs.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers : 13-3
Baltimore Ravens : 9-7
Cleveland Browns : 8-8
Cincinnati Bengals : 2-14
The defending AFC champions will return this season with a healthy Troy Polamalu (notes) who struggled through an injury-plagued 2010 season. His presence in the Steelers secondary can only help in this team's already stellar defense in their quest for a return Super Bowl engagement in February. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (notes) will rely on an under-appreciated receiver corps led by ageless and dependable Hines Ward (notes) who played with an inured foot the latter part of the season. Ward, Mike deep threat receiver Wallace and tight end Heath Miller (notes) will garner most of the team's receptions. The passing game will free up running lanes for Rashard Mendenhall (notes) to amass yardage on the ground. This team is poised for a late playoff run again in 2011.
The Baltimore Ravens will have an early opportunity to prove they are Super Bowl worthy as they square off with the Steelers during the opening weekend of the season. The perennial defensive force in the conference has been led by veteran stalwarts Ray Lewis (notes) and Ed Reed (notes) and will continue to depend on their physical play to offset an inconsistent offense. With another solid season by running back Ray Rice (notes) , the pressure will be off Joe Flacco (notes) somewhat to carry the offensive burden. For Baltimore to be more of an offensive threat, the team will need an all-pro caliber season from Anquan Boldin (notes) who struggled to live up to his prior Arizona Cardinal years, recording just 837 yards on 64 receptions.
The Cleveland Browns will depend on workhorse running back Peyton Hillis (notes) to carry the offensive load and hope second year quarterback Colt McCoy (notes) continues to improve. When passing, the Browns will look to former Patriot Benjamin Watson (notes) who led the team in receptions and yards last season. A solid defense will be an improvement and may be of some help but this team is still on the outside looking in for playoff contention.
The circus that is known as the Cincinnati Bengals are rebuilding after the loss of quarterback Carson Palmer (notes) ; who threatened to retire if he is not released or traded. He may seriously want to consider making his retirement permanent after the team lost both of their top receivers from last season in Chad Ochocinco (notes) (trade) and Terrell Owens (notes) (injured free agent). The Bengals will look to Cedric Benson (notes) as their primary offensive weapon and add to his previous two straight 1,000 yard seasons. The defense is led by leading tackler Dhani Jones (notes) and Carlos Dunlap (notes) who recorded 10 sacks to pace Cincinnati.
AFC South
Houston Texans 11-5
Indianapolis Colts : 9-7
Tennessee Titans : 6-10
Jacksonville Jaguars : 3-13
With the loss of Manning for the first game of the season and possibly more, the Houston Texans have a golden opportunity to capitalize on his absence. A follow-up stellar season by running back Arian Foster (notes) will be critical in providing a balanced offense and will contribute greatly to the team's success. The ability of Matt Schaub (notes) remaining healthy and connecting with Pro Bowl wide receiver Andre Johnson (notes) early and often is essential for this team's playoff hopes. Despite the offensive potential of the Texans, the ability of the Mario Williams (notes) -led defense will be a key factor in the team's success.
The Colts will have to adjust to the temporary setback of future hall-of-farmer Peyton Manning (notes) as he continues his lengthy rehabilitation from off-season neck surgery. In his absence the team will rely on journeyman Kerry Collins (notes) to handle the reigns of the offense. The Colts' hopes of playing a Super Bowl in their home stadium rest solely on the neck of the four-time league MVP. With less offense at the start of the season, bookend pass rushers Robert Mathis (notes) and Dwight Freeney (notes) will need to apply continued pressure on opposing offenses to stay among the elite teams in the conference. A lengthy hiatus from the starting lineup will hinder the Colts greatly in their chance to return to the Super Bowl for the second time in the Manning era.
The Titans signing of [Chris Johnson]e|/nfl/players/8801 to a contract extension was he biggest off-season move for the team this year. Johnson will be expected to increase his workload this season and hope for a career resurrection from long-time Seahawk Matt Hasselbeck (notes) to contend but are likely to battle with Jacksonville to avoid finishing in the basement of the AFC South. The Titans will need to overcome the loss of leading pass rusher Jason Babin (notes) whose 13 sacks headed to Philadelphia and will be tough to replace. Coach Jeff Fisher's team will be competitive weekly but lack enough talented depth to contend for the playoffs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a team in transition. Just before the start of the season the team decided to cut ties with last year's starter David Garrard (notes) and are handing the offense over to five year reserve Luke McCown (notes) who performed modestly in one season of extended duty with Tampa Bay in 2007. Maurice Jones-Drew (notes) will be counted on to carry the ball often in the Jacksonville offense. His health will be essential for this team to have any chance maintaining offense this season. The Jaguars will need improved performance from the defense if the team has any hopes of winning many games this season.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers : 12-4
Kansas City Chiefs : 9-7
Denver Broncos : 7-9
Oakland Raiders 6-10
The San Diego Chargers hope for a healthy season from their running back tandem of Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert (notes) , who combined for over 1,400 yards last season. Quarterback Phillip Rivers will again have options to throw to in 2011 with Matthews out of the backfield; wide receive Vincent Jackson (notes) and tight end Antonio Gates (notes) as his primary receiver targets. Leading pass rusher Shaun Phillips (notes) and his 11 sacks return for a balanced Chargers defense as they look to advance to their second Super Bowl in franchise history.
The Kansas City Chiefs will not be able to sneak up on teams as they did for the early part of last season and look at last year as a sign of things to come. Maintaining the balanced offense led by the passing combination of quarterback Matt Cassel (notes) and Dwayne Bowe (notes) along with the running attack of Jamaal Charles (notes) . While the offense provided balanced scoring options, the performance of the defense was a difference maker. Sixth year linebacker Tamba Hali (notes) and his 15 sacks returns for Kansas City while leading pass defender Eric Berry (notes) finished second on the team in tackles and led the team in interceptions. Continued performances from all will be essential for the Chiefs to improve upon last seasons results.
The Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders hope to sneak into a wild card spot with both teams possessing some weaknesses. The Broncos will be led by productive quarterback Kyle Orton (notes) , deep threat wide receiver Brandon Lloyd (notes) and running back Knowshon Moreno (notes) to propel the offense. The Broncos can also exploit a wildcat offensive set with former college champion QB Tim Tebow (notes) who brings strength and running ability to the position. The defense for Denver will depend on a solid secondary but will need to improve greatly if the team has hopes for the playoffs.
A team once committed to excellence, the Oakland Raiders no longer has the pride and swagger they once did in over 25 years ago. The offense will struggle with consistency and rely on the legs of Darren McFadden (notes) and a physical aggressive defense to win games. The Raiders' propensity to commit senseless penalties has contributed to many losses over the years and will need the old commitment to excellence if this team hopes to contend this year.
Playoff predictions
AFC Division Winners: New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, San Diego
Wild Card: New York
AFC Championship: New England over Pittsburgh
Scott Duhaime is a fan and follower of the New England Patriots for over 30 years, witnessing the team's ascent from league irrelevance to among the league's elite franchises.
Sources:
Yahoo! Sports NFL Home Page
Yahoo! Sports NFL Team Rosters, Depth Charts, and Statistics
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