Saketh Kotamraju
2021
Written Justifications are Key to Aggregate Crowdsourced Forecasts
Saketh Kotamraju
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Eduardo Blanco
Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2021
This paper demonstrates that aggregating crowdsourced forecasts benefits from modeling the written justifications provided by forecasters. Our experiments show that the majority and weighted vote baselines are competitive, and that the written justifications are beneficial to call a question throughout its life except in the last quarter. We also conduct an error analysis shedding light into the characteristics that make a justification unreliable.
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