Self-Ensemble: Mitigating Confidence Distortion for Large Language Models

Zicheng Xu, Guanchu Wang, Guangyao Zheng, Yu-Neng Chuang, Alex Szalay, Xia Hu, Vladimir Braverman


Abstract
Although Large Language Models (LLMs) perform well in general fields, they exhibit a **confidence distortion problem** on multi-choice question-answering (MCQA), particularly as the number of answer choices increases. Specifically, on MCQA with many choices, LLMs suffer from under-confidence in correct predictions and over-confidence in incorrect ones, leading to a substantially degraded performance. To solve this problem, we propose Self-Ensemble in this work. Our method splits the choices into several groups and ensembles LLM predictions across these groups to reach a final decision. The advantage of Self-Ensemble is its plug-and-play nature, where it can be integrated into existing LLM architecture based on a designed attention mask and positional encoding, without requiring labeled datasets for parameter tuning. Experimental results on three LLMs and datasets demonstrate that Self-Ensemble comprehensively addresses the confidence distortion problem of LLMs, outperforming standard inference as well as baseline methods.
Anthology ID:
2025.findings-emnlp.902
Volume:
Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2025
Month:
November
Year:
2025
Address:
Suzhou, China
Editors:
Christos Christodoulopoulos, Tanmoy Chakraborty, Carolyn Rose, Violet Peng
Venue:
Findings
SIG:
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
16603–16615
Language:
URL:
https://preview.aclanthology.org/author-page-yu-wang-polytechnic/2025.findings-emnlp.902/
DOI:
10.18653/v1/2025.findings-emnlp.902
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Zicheng Xu, Guanchu Wang, Guangyao Zheng, Yu-Neng Chuang, Alex Szalay, Xia Hu, and Vladimir Braverman. 2025. Self-Ensemble: Mitigating Confidence Distortion for Large Language Models. In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2025, pages 16603–16615, Suzhou, China. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
Self-Ensemble: Mitigating Confidence Distortion for Large Language Models (Xu et al., Findings 2025)
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https://preview.aclanthology.org/author-page-yu-wang-polytechnic/2025.findings-emnlp.902.pdf
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